531 
FXUS64 KMRX 182333
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
633 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Friday.

- Multiple chances for rain to end the week and into the weekend 
with an incoming front.

- Colder, sub-freezing temperatures return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Currently another cloudy day with some breezy southwest winds 
keeping temperatures warm. Some light radar returns present across 
Middle TN and the Cumberland Plateau, which is producing a drizzle 
in spots. These will try and make it further into the eastern 
Tennessee Valley, but more precipitation coverage looks to hold off 
until later tonight when a mid level vort max helps enhance synoptic 
level forcing, especially areas north of Interstate 40.

Cloudy and warm conditions continue through Thursday and into Friday 
ahead of the main front. Expect on/off scattered to isolated showers 
on Thursday and into Friday, primarily north of Interstate 40. 
Widespread showers (and even thunderstorms) are expected when the 
front finally moves through, which is looking more and more likely 
to occur early late Thursday into early Friday  morning. Enough 
instability in the atmosphere that people could hear their first 
rumble of thunder overnight. But expect primarily rain with this 
FROPA.

Light rain chances continue over the weekend as the front stalls out 
to our south with drizzle possible on Saturday into Sunday, but no 
significant accumulations are expected.

Next week we will get much colder with a trough digging south 
through the Great Lakes region allowing for very cold Canadian 
airmass to move into the region. The highest peaks of the northern 
plateau and Appalachian mountains could see a transition from rain 
to snow on Sunday as the system ejects out of the region. 
Accumulations are expected to be light, generally below 1" for all 
but the peaks of the mountains. Overnight temperatures will dip 
below freezing by Monday morning, and the coldest night of the week 
will be Tuesday morning seeing lows in the 20's to upper teens. 

A gradual warming trend can be expected to start for the middle of 
the week, bringing temperatures back up to seasonal normals. 
However, another cold front can be expected late next week which 
looks to drop temperatures back down as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Predominant MVFR conditions are expected through the first two- 
thirds of the TAF cycle. Light sprinkle/DZ is on-going and will 
continue for the next few hours. Slightly higher probabilities of 
on and off rain showers are expected as a vorticity max swings 
through the region overnight. Rain chances will taper off late 
morning, with MVFR cigs expected to scatter and/or lift around 
15-18Z Thursday. Another afternoon of gusty southwest winds is 
expected for TYS as well. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  76  61  74 /  40  20  90  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  73  60  70 /  70  50  90  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       58  71  59  70 /  70  50  90  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              53  69  56  66 /  80  70  70  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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