Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Aug 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Aug 25 2026

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat continues across the south-central
U.S. into the Southwest...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the
Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Midwest, and Southeast through
Monday...


A strong and persistent upper ridge centered over south-central U.S. and
the Southwest will maintain very hot conditions across the southern tier.
Above normal temperatures will continue to have daily afternoon highs
within the upper 90s to 100s, with the highest amounts over the Southern
Plains and portions of the Four Corners. With the combination of little to
no overnight recovery and high humidity, heat indices may reach 105-115
degrees, which may lead to widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk.
Furthermore, these abnormal temperatures are expected to break dozens of
high/low daily temperatures through the week. Extreme Heat Warning and
Heat Advisories have been issued across portions of the Four Corners,
Southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley.

North of the ridge, a corridor of enhanced moisture and instability will
extend from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest and Lower
Mississippi Valley. Shortwave energy embedded within the northwesterly
flow will interact with this moisture and a frontal boundary, resulting in
scattered thunderstorms through Monday. Repeated convection and high
rainfall rates may lead to excessive rainfall and flash flooding,
especially across the Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Additionally, Storm Prediction Center highlights the potential for severe
thunderstorms, damaging wind gusts, and hail across portions of the Great
Basin and Rockies/Plains through Monday. Further southwest, monsoonal
moisture will continue to bring daily thunderstorms across the Southwest,
Rockies, and Intermountain West, leading to excessive rainfall/flash
flooding concerns through Monday.

Meanwhile, a surface low and associated frontal boundary affecting the
Northeast will gradually shift eastward, but additional upper-level energy
will support lingering showers and thunderstorms into Monday. Some storms
may become locally strong where sufficient instability develops, which may
lead to severe weather and excessive rainfall concerns. Additionally, the
trailing frontal boundary stretching across the Southeast will bring
chances for severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, and excessive rainfall
into Monday.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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