297 
FXUS64 KMRX 200659
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
259 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 257 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Slightly elevated fire weather conditions today.

- Patchy frost possible northeast TN and southwest VA tonight into 
  Tuesday morning.

- Dry conditions and a warming trend through the week. Increasing 
  chances of rain and storms Friday night and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

We begin the period with the backside of an upper-level trough still 
in place across the area. Northwest flow continues and will allow a 
dry airmass to persist across the region. As we further dry out from 
Saturday night's rainfall, combined with the low RH and breezy winds 
today, slightly elevated fire weather conditions will be in place. 
The risk will be a little higher across Cherokee and Clay County NC, 
and portions of northeast TN and southwest VA. These areas received 
lesser rainfall compared to the rest of our area. It doesn't quite 
look like Red Flag warning criteria will be met today but an 
enhanced fire danger statement will likely be needed for potions of 
the area. The day shift will coordinate with forestry partners later 
this morning to determine issuance.


Otherwise, dry conditions and a warming trend continue through the 
week as high pressure builds in across our area. A weak cold front 
approaches on Wednesday and may bring a few light showers into 
southwest VA, but chances are very low. By the end of the week, 
models are showing a deepening trough across the western U.S. This 
will break down of ridge of high pressure and put our region within 
zonal flow. This zonal flow pattern will open the door for a series 
of systems from Friday night and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Calm and clear under high pressure the rest of the night. W-NWly
winds will develop later today with possible gusts up to 20KT. Mid
to high clouds during the day, followed by a return to calm and 
clear later tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             75  47  81  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  42  76  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  42  77  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              62  34  72  47 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Fire Weather Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for 
     Cherokee-Clay.

TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS


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