Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Aug 26 2026

...Hazardous record-breaking heat continues across the south-central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the
Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast
through Tuesday...


A strong ridge anchored over the Southwest and south-central U.S. will
continue to bring hazardous heat across the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley, and gradually into the Southwest by mid-week. Daytime
highs will reach 100-110 degrees across the southern Plains, while
portions of the Southwest can reach up to 115. Some areas are even
expected to break dozens of high/low daily temperatures through the week.
With the combination of well above normal temperatures and the high
humidity, heat indices will remain elevated. Additionally, the warm
overnight temperatures will provide limited recovery, leading to
widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk through the week. See the latest Key
Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion for more information.

The western periphery of the ridge will remain a corridor for monsoonal
moisture extending northward across the Four Corners and Intermountain
West/Rockies. Unstable airmass will interact with shortwave energy and the
frontal boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms across portions of
the Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies. The strongest storms will
be capable of producing severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and flash
flooding through Tuesday, especially over areas that have sufficient
instability. Further north, a progressive westerly flow will persist
across the northern Rockies/Plains and upper Midwest. As the frontal
boundary moves eastward, it will interact with warm unstable air,
supporting repeated organized showers and thunderstorms across the
Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest. Locally heavy rainfall and severe
thunderstorms will be possible with stronger storms through Tuesday,
especially over the central/southern High Plains.

Meanwhile, the surface low and associated frontal boundary will continue
to exit eastward from the Northeast, but shortwave troughs will continue
to produce lingering showers and thunderstorms through Monday across the
Lower Great Lakes and New England. Further south, the trailing frontal
boundary will drape across the Southeast into the southern Plains,
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. As the
boundary interacts with warm moist air and sufficient instability,
organized storm cells may develop. The strongest storms may produce
damaging winds, severe thunderstorms, and localized flash
flooding/excessive rainfall, especially along the Gulf Coast, Lower
Mississippi Valley, and Southeast Coast.



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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