402 
FXUS64 KMRX 201727
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
127 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Elevated fire danger continues through early this evening mainly 
in Southwest North Carolina where fuels are still dry and winds are 
slightly stronger.

- Patchy frost possible northeast TN and southwest VA tonight into 
Tuesday morning.

- Dry conditions and a warming trend through the week. Increasing
  chances of rain and storms Friday night and into the weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the Eastern U.S. At the 
surface, high pressure is currently centered over the Great Lakes. 
With good mixing expected this afternoon due to clearing clouds, 
relative humidity is expected to drop into the 25 to 35 percent 
range for most of the region. Elevated fire danger this afternoon 
and evening will be mainly in Southwest North Carolina and maybe the 
East Tennessee mountains where fuels are still dry and winds are 
slightly stronger. 

Dry weather will continue through Friday. One possible exception is 
a very low chance for a light shower in Southwest Virginia on 
Wednesday afternoon as a system moves to our north. Patchy frost is 
possible in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia late tonight 
into Tuesday morning with clear, calm conditions expected with 
cooler temperatures. 

Otherwise, warm and sunny until the next system approaches the 
region on Friday with the best chance of rain Friday night into 
Saturday. A weak ridge will be over the Southeast this weekend. A 
series of weak impulses moving through the pattern could bring 
showers and storms off and on into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Westerly winds will continue to gust around 20 knots at times this
afternoon. Some clouds are lingering mainly near TRI. Clouds will
clear out overnight into tomorrow. Winds will be lighter tomorrow
and more southwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             47  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  42  76  52  79 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       42  77  50  81 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              34  72  47  76 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...McD


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