379 
FXUS64 KMRX 210648
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
248 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- After a cool morning, a gradual warming trend is expected with dry 
  conditions through much of the week. 

- Showers and possibly a few storms are increasingly likely this
  weekend with Saturday having the best chances.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Currently, mid/upper troughing has pushed off into the Atlantic with 
surface high pressure to the northeast. This has led to another dry 
and seasonally cool morning with patchy frost in northeast Tennessee 
and southwest Virginia. Throughout the day, troughing will lift 
further east, leading to height rises and warmer temperatures than 
yesterday. Low RH's are expected again, but southerly flow will 
slightly increase moisture. On Wednesday, a very weak shortwave will 
pass to our northeast, bringing low-end rain chances close to 
southwest Virginia. However, our area is expected to remain dry with 
similarly mild temperatures.

By Thursday, a trough and deepening surface low will eject out of 
the Rockies leading to increasing ridging and southerly flow in the 
eastern U.S. Our area will remain dry during this time with most 
places rising into the 80s. The ridge becomes more suppressed on 
Friday, but continued southerly flow will lead to temperatures 
further into the 80s. On Saturday, a shortwave is expected to move 
into the region from the northwest with moisture having increased 
further. Showers and possibly some storms are increasingly likely 
across the area. Overall, winds aloft remain fairly light, but 
instability could maybe support some stronger storms as indicated by 
the CIPS Analogs. Hopefully, this provides some needed rainfall as 
the southern half of the area is anywhere from 4 to 8 inches below 
normal for the year so far. By Sunday, models differ on how much 
moisture will remain in the region, so rain chances are lessened.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR and dry through the forecast period with light winds
developing out of the SW later today. Clear skies at this time may
lead to mid to high clouds during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  77  52  80  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       77  50  81  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              72  47  77  49 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


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