AWUS01 KWNH 241101
FFGMPD
MSZ000-ARZ000-241700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1120
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241059Z - 241700Z

Summary...Flash flooding is possible this morning across portions
of central Arkansas as repeating showers and thunderstorms move
through. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches in a short duration may
cause isolated instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms this morning continue to
blossom over portions of Arkansas, moving from the northwest to
southeast on the periphery of the upper ridge that is centered
over central Texas. This activity is being fueled by the lingering
nocturnal low level jet and is positioned within an axis of
relatively higher moisture, characterized by PWs around 1.5-1.75 inches.

Over the next several hours, this activity should progress
southeast. However, upstream additional convection is forming and
will likely track over the similar area. The most recent runs of
the HRRR and other hi-res guidance is in reasonable agreement with
the placement of the heaviest rainfall axis positioned in a stripe
from northern to southeast Arkansas, indicating 1-2 inches likely
with some embedded cores of 2-3 inches through about 17Z today.
Rainfall rates with the strongest cores could approach 2"/hr.

Despite the drier soils, the intense rain rates combined with the
repeating/training nature of the activity suggests at least a
lower end threat of flash flooding for the more vulnerable
locations. After about 17Z, convection should begin to wane and
also move out of the area.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36489251 36149183 35769151 35079109 34669082 
            34039059 33529063 33269125 34159242 34959289 
            35529317 36229341 

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