MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 241530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241529 
NCZ000-SCZ000-241800-

Mesoscale Discussion 2112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina into the Pee Dee
region of South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241529Z - 241800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated severe weather is
expected to increase by early to mid afternoon. Convective trends
are being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Mid-morning mesoanalysis indicates a weak surface low
between Sumter and Florence, SC along a quasi-stationary surface
boundary extending along the Carolina coastal plain. Ahead of the
front, the 12Z Charleston, SC and Newport, NC soundings sampled a
very moist boundary layer with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s,
which yielded a strongly unstable environment with MLCAPE of
3000-4000 J/kg. 

Visible satellite imagery indicates deepening cumulus along the
developing sea breeze near the SC-NC border, which will likely
evolve into thunderstorms over the next couple of hours with
continued heating and destabilization of the boundary layer.
Additional storms are possible farther inland ahead of the surface
low and along the synoptic front. However, latest CAM guidance
suggests the greatest storm coverage along the sea breeze and
trailing outflow boundary from storms moving toward the NC Outer
Banks. 

The region resides within the southern fringe of stronger
mid/upper-level winds attendant to troughing over the Northeast with
around 30 kt of deep-layer shear present across the narrow warm
sector. As such, the potential exists for some storm organization,
including periodic supercell structures with an associated risk for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. A brief
tornado risk may also materialize given a supercell storm mode along
the existing boundaries. 

The potentially limited geographic extent of the threat area leads
to uncertainty in a severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/24/2026

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   33417952 33617977 34037979 34567908 34807873 35027842
            35177797 35047756 34687733 34217750 33807774 33467842
            33337909 33417952 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$

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