Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 25 2026 - 00Z Thu Aug 27 2026

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the south-central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threats continue across portions of
the Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast
through Wednesday...


A strong ridge anchored over the Southwest and south-central U.S. will
continue to bring hazardous heat across the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley before gradually expanding into the Southwest by
mid-week. Daytime highs will reach 100-110 degrees across the southern
Plains, while portions of the Southwest can reach up to 115. Some areas
are even expected to break dozens of daily temperature records through the
week. Additionally, very warm overnight temperatures will provide limited
nighttime relief, leading to widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk for the
next several days. See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the
discussion for more information.

The western periphery of the ridge will remain a corridor for monsoonal
moisture extending northward across the Four Corners and Intermountain
West/Rockies. The moisture combined with strong surface heating will lead
to scattered thunderstorms across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin,
and central Rockies. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
severe weather and heavy rainfall, with gusty winds and localized flash
flooding possible through Wednesday. Farther north, a progressive westerly
flow will persist across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest. As
the frontal boundary moves eastward, it will interact with warm and
unstable air, supporting episodes of organized thunderstorms across parts
of the Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest. Locally heavy rainfall and
severe weather will be possible with stronger storms through Tuesday and
Wednesday, especially over the central/southern High Plains.

Meanwhile, a surface low and associated frontal boundary will continue to
pull away from the Northeast, but reinforcing disturbances will continue
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of northern
New England into Tuesday. Farther south, a trailing slow-moving frontal
boundary will drape across the Southeast into the southern Plains,
bringing repeated chances for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.
Warm and moist Gulf air interacting with the nearly stalled front will
support the potential for locally heavy rainfall and severe weather. The
strongest storms may produce damaging winds and isolated flash flooding,
especially across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, along the Gulf
Coast, and for parts of the Southeast.


Miller/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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