745 
FXUS64 KMRX 241811
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
211 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 136 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026
 
- Dry conditions with comfortable afternoon humidity levels through 
Tuesday.  

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday and 
especially Thursday.

- Drier for the weekend.
 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

An upper level trough will be weakening but will remain over the 
eastern CONUS as surface high pressure to our north and northwest 
drifts slowly east through Tuesday. This will provide us with a 
dry days and comfortably low relative humidity values this 
afternoon and again Tuesday. Some patchy fog may develop again in 
the late night hours tonight mainly near rivers and lakes. 

By mid week the surface high will be off to our east and northeast, 
allowing low level flow to become more southwesterly and moisture to 
increase. Short wave energy may have enough moisture and instability 
to work with for a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, 
especially south and mountains. By Thursday into Thursday night, 
models show additioanl short wave energy aloft and a weak cold front 
pushing into our area. This will likely result in the period with 
the highest coverage of showers and storms. The details such as 
timing of the front/main forcing will matter and are still 
uncertain, so we will have to wait until we get closer to see about 
the potential for any strong to severe storms. Right now the 
ensemble data joint probabilities for at least 500 J/kg of CAPE and 
> 30kt bulk shear are minimal at best and the chance for organized 
severe storms looks quite low. 

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will build in by the 
weekend, with most areas expected to be dry. The NBM just has some 
low chances for afternoon showers and storms mainly in the mountains 
both Saturday and Sunday. With the ridging building in we will also 
see temperatures trending back above normal during the weekend into 
Monday.  

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The primary aviation weather concern is the potential for fog 
development late tonight especially TRI. Right now the probability 
of fog impacts at the terminal looks too low to include as 
prevailing, but will include a few hours of tempo MVFR vsby in fog
around sunrise at TRI. Otherwise, a VFR forecast for the period 
all sites. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  92  68  93 /   0   0   0  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  89  65  91 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       62  88  64  90 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  85  61  87 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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