Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Aug 27 2026

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the south-central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threats continue across portions of
the Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast
through Wednesday...


A strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southwest into
south-central U.S. into late week. This will maintain an abnormal
hazardous heat across the region, with daytime highs of 100-110 across the
Southern Plains, while portions of the Southwest will reach up to 115.
With overnight temperatures providing limited relief, heat-related illness
may increase, especially for those without proper hydration and adequate
cooling. Furthermore, widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk is forecasted
for much of the Southwest into Texas and Southern Plains through late
week. See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion
for more information.

Farther north, the troughing over the Northwest and northern Rockies will
support a more active pattern from the northern and central Rockies/Plains
into the Upper Midwest as moisture continues to deepen along the frontal
boundary. Increasing instability will also support organized convection,
that may lead to flash-flooding concerns across portions of the
central/southern High Plains through Wednesday. Additionally, the system
will bring the risk for severe thunderstorms across the south/central
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, and shifts into the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley on Wednesday as the frontal boundary moves eastward.

Across the Southwest and portions of the Rockies/Plains, monsoonal
moisture will continue to move northward along the western periphery of
the ridge and interact with embedded shortwave energy. This will lead to
daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. Organized
convection may lead to locally heavy rainfall rates, which will continue
to pose isolated flash-flooding concerns, particularly over terrain and
areas with wet antecedent conditions. Father east, increasing instability
and persistent Gulf moisture along a slow-moving frontal boundary will
support repeated showers and thunderstorms across the Southeast into Lower
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the
risk for severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, and isolated heavy
rainfall/flash-flooding will continue for portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and the Southeast through Wednesday.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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