467 
FXUS64 KMRX 220652
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
252 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through
  Friday. Low afternoon relative humidity each day with values in
  the 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing moisture and instability this weekend with likely 
  chances of showers and possibly storms, especially Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated early next week, with
  potential for some strong to severe storms. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

An mid/upper level short-wave will move across the upper Ohio valley 
into the central Appalachians later tonight into Wednesday. This 
wave will produce an area of convection that may approach southwest 
Virginia Wednesday. However, at this time, the dynamics and moisture 
look likely to stay to our north with surface ridging holding over 
our area, so dry conditions are anticipated to persist. Fire weather 
concerns will continue to be elevated with low afternoon relative 
humidity values in the 20s common across the area, and afternoon 
winds will generally be in the 5 to 15 mph range with the higher 
values across the north along with some higher gusts.  

For Thursday and Friday, an upper ridge will build over the area 
producing mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions. High 
temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal both days. Low 
afternoon relative humidity values will continue with values mainly 
in the 20s and 30s. 

For Friday night through Saturday, a northern stream short wave over 
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region and a southern stream wave moving 
across the Gulf coast states will flatten out the upper ridge, but 
models generally indicate limited phasing with these waves and 
instability and dynamics look limited for our area.  Some showers 
and possibly thunderstorms can be expected Friday night into 
Saturday, but confidence is low on QPF amounts. Current QPF shows 
around a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rainfall, but 
ensemble data suggests it may be less. 

Another wave will move into the Tennessee valley and southern 
Appalachians early next week, bringing another chance for showers 
and thunderstorms sometime in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Models 
indicate the dynamics are likely to be stronger with this system, 
and it may tap into Gulf moisture as well. Ensemble joint 
probabilities of CAPE and Shear currently suggest a greater threat 
of strong to severe storms with this system. Models still do not 
agree on details such as timing, but this will bear watching as we 
get closer and the details become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The area will be situated under high pressure to the SE and a
disturbance moving overhead to our north. A pressure gradient will
create westerly winds and gusts, primarily the strongest at TRI
later this afternoon. Prior to, a LLJ may create LLWS conditions
at TRI the next few hours. Otherwise, dry weather, VFR, and either
SKC or high clouds expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             84  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  53  83  56 /   0   0  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  46  80  52 /   0   0  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KS


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