541 
FXUS64 KMRX 250557
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
157 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026
 
- Dry conditions with comfortable afternoon humidity levels 
  continues today.  

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will return tomorrow and 
  especially Thursday.

- Mostly dry for the weekend with warming temperatures.
 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Surface high pressure leading to dry and comfortable conditions, 
will continue today. Aloft, a closed upper low over Quebec is in the 
process of cycling away. The persistent SW ridge will hold on 
through much of the week. Troughing lifts north next weekend, 
allowing higher heights to move in the last days of August. Valley 
highs in the lower 90s as well as increasing humidity will return 
as a result. 

Precip chances will begin re-entering the forecast later tomorrow, 
with the best probability over the Southern Appalachians. High 
pressure moving to our east will allow southwesterly return flow to 
develop. Better coverage for showers and storms will come Thursday, 
as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest, as well as a 
west to east draped stationary front to our south. Models show at 
least 20kt bulk shear as well as CAPE near and above 1000 J/Kg 
Thursday afternoon, so will need to monitor trends to see if strong 
to severe is possible.

Following the frontal passage, surface high pressure fills in from 
the north trying to dry out areas underneath it. The NBM, however, 
does keep some precipitation chances around over the weekend, but 
mainly for the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A few high clouds passing over but otherwise generally VFR
conditions expected through the TAF period. A tempo exists for fog
potential once more at KTRI this morning, but less confidence 
given the slightly wider dewpoint depressions currently than 
yesterday. Otherwise another day of dry weather and light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             92  68  93  71 /   0   0  20  40 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  89  65  91  70 /   0   0  10  40 
Oak Ridge, TN                       88  64  90  69 /   0   0  10  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              85  61  87  66 /   0   0  10  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


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