681 
FXUS64 KMRX 191135
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
635 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Multiple chances for rain to end the week and into the weekend 
with an incoming front.

- Colder, sub-freezing temperatures return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow is over the region and a 
closed low will move through the Great Lakes Friday. At the surface, 
high pressure over the Southeast is retreating as a low moves out of 
the Rockies and into the Midwest Thursday morning. Rain showers have 
developed in the northern half of the region over the last couple of 
hours. Shower activity will continue through Thursday morning as a 
vort max moves through the region. Thunder potential is low with dew 
points remaining below 60 degrees in the northern half of the region 
where the strongest forcing will be. By Thursday evening, the 
surface low will be near IA/IL/MO with a warm front over IN/OH and a 
cold front along the Mississippi River. Rain chances will be low 
Thursday afternoon/early evening. The best chance of rain will be 
Thursday night into Friday morning as the cold front moves through. 
The parent low will be over the Great Lakes and vertically stacked 
with the upper low by the time the cold front moves through Friday 
morning. Thunder potential is low but a few rumbles will be possible 
with dew points briefly reaching 60 degrees in most of the Tennessee 
Valley.

Strong winds will be likely areawide from Thursday afternoon to at 
least Friday morning with gusts up to 30 mph likely at times. Winds 
will be even higher in the mountains and foothills Thursday evening 
through Friday morning as 850 mb winds increase to 45 knots. Gusts 
up to 50 or 55 mph will be possible in wind prone spots. A Wind 
Advisory will be issued soon for the mountains and foothills. 

Warm temperatures will continue through Saturday with highs mainly 
in the 60s. Thursday will be the warmest day with highs getting into 
the 70s in the Tennessee Valley.

On Saturday night, another system is likely to bring rain. This one 
may have better upper level support. Drying out Sunday in most 
locations as a trough moves through. There is a chance for some 
light snow accumulations in the higher elevations "horseshoe" on the 
backside of the system on Sunday/Sunday night but accumulations look 
very low at this time, less than one inch. No accumulation is 
expected in the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures will be much colder 
Sunday, Monday, Tuesday with highs mainly in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Fog has developed at TRI with LIFR remaining likely for the next
couple of hours. CHA and TYS will also still see continued showers
and MVFR conditions with showers lingering into the afternoon at
TRI. CHA and TYS are expected to return back to VFR during the
afternoon with TRI likely remaining MVFR through much of the day.
Heading into tonight, LLWS will become a focus as winds 2,000 feet
AGL and above increase to 40 kts or more. At this time, LLWS was
only added into TRI as breezy southwesterly surface winds are
expected at the other two sites. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             76  60  73  49 /  30  80  20  50 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  59  69  46 /  60  90  20  40 
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  58  68  45 /  50  80  10  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  56  66  41 /  70  80  30  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for 
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier 
     Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast 
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


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