543 
FXUS64 KMRX 221901
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 252 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through
  Friday. Low afternoon relative humidity each day with values in
  the 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing chances of showers and possibly storms late Friday 
  night into Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated early next week, with
  potential for some strong to severe storms. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A mid/upr level shortwave is currently progressing into the central 
Appalachians this afternoon. Associated precipitation will remain 
just to our north and east, with just an increase in mid-level 
clouds occurring across southwest Virginia. Main impact is the FDS 
that goes through the afternoon due to expected breezy conditions 
and low afternoon RH. The best alignment of strongest gusts and 
lowest RH are expected in far NE TN and SW VA.  

An upper ridge and sfc high pressure takes greater control tomorrow. 
While low afternoon humidity is expected once more, winds will be 
light. Plenty of sunshine will accompany well above normal 
temperatures. A slight improvement in RH is expected Friday as 
southwesterly winds increase moisture advection ahead of a northern 
stream trough spreading into the western Great Lakes and a southern 
stream wave translating across the Gulf. 

An associated cold front will increase the chance for showers and 
and storms as we head into Saturday. Latest NAM solution depicts a 
diminishing LLJ as convection spreads into our region, which will 
help limit availability instability as well as low-level shear. GFS 
probabilities of CAPE greater 500 J/kg range from 40-70%, but when 
looking at probabilities of greater than 1000J/kg probabilities 
sharply fall to 30% or lower. The most likely solution for Saturday 
seems to be general showers and thunderstorms, but we will continue 
to monitor as hi-res models become available. 

A more amplified system is expected to bring another round of 
showers and storms late Monday night into Tuesday. Long range 
guidance suggest the more dynamic system will have better potential 
for LLJ to tap into Gulf moisture while persisting in strength as it 
swing through the Tennessee Valley. This leads to greater joint 
probabilities of CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30kts relative to 
the weekend system. Though the best severe chances still look to be 
to our south and west, this system will bear watching. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions persist. Wind gusts around 15kts, up to 25kts at 
TRI, will continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Winds will
calm in diurnal fashion this evening but increasing high pressure
influence will keep winds light tomorrow afternoon. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             54  84  57  85 /   0   0   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  53  82  56  83 /   0   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       51  82  55  83 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              47  79  52  80 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


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