797 
FXUS64 KMRX 251812
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
212 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026
 
- Dry conditions with comfortable afternoon humidity levels 
  continues this afternoon, and most locations will be dry 
  Wednesday as well. 

- Highest chances for showers and storms will be Thursday and Friday.

- Most locations should be dry for the weekend, but we will see a
  trend toward hotter conditions that will continue into the 
  first part of the week.
 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The surface high pressure to our north that has been sponsoring 
our dry days and comfortable afternoon humidity levels will 
continue to extend into our area as it drifts slowly east this 
afternoon and tonight. Moisture will begin to increase Wednesday 
but most areas will remain rain free, with just some isolated to 
scattered afternoon convection expected especially over the 
eastern mountains. 

Precipitation chances will increase for Thursday into Friday as 
multiple weak short waves move across and a weak surface front moves 
slowly toward and then into our area.  Models have been struggling a 
lot with the details of these features, but right now it appears the 
front will push into our area Thursday night and is unlikely to move 
off to our to south and east until sometime Friday.  Latest runs 
suggest short wave energy ahead of the front may have convection 
moving in during the early morning hours Thursday morning, and if 
this occurs clouds and precipitation could limit instability during 
the day Thursday. CAPE values currently look modest with limited 
shear Thursday into Friday, so the potential for organized severe 
storms still looks low. However, a few storms may produce strong 
gusty winds either day and locally heavy rainfall will also be 
possible.


Upper ridging and surface high pressure will build in by the 
weekend, with most areas expected to be dry. The NBM just has some 
low chances for afternoon showers and storms mainly in the mountains 
both Saturday and Sunday, with the limited precip chances continuing 
into the first part of the week. We will also see a gradual warming 
trend during the weekend into the first part of the week, with high 
temperatures likely to be in the 90s across most valley locations by 
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Winds will
generally be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  94  72  90 /   0  10  30  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  65  91  70  89 /   0  10  20  50 
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  91  69  88 /   0  10  20  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              58  87  66  86 /   0  10  10  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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