961 
FXUS64 KMRX 230710
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
310 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through
  Friday. Low afternoon relative humidity each day with values in
  the 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing chances of showers and possibly storms late Friday 
  night into Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated early next week, with
  potential for some strong to severe storms. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Surface high pressure will remain over the area and an upper ridge 
will be building in today, providing plenty of sunshine and a very 
warm afternoon. For fire weather concerns, relative humidity values 
will be quite low again today, with values in the 20s across much of 
the area, but winds will be lighter than yesterday. Slight 
improvement in minimum RH is expected Friday although values will 
still be low, and southwesterly winds pick up to around 10 mph 
across much of the area.  

The ridge flattens out Friday night into Saturday as short wave 
energy moves into the Great Lakes Region while a weaker southern 
stream wave approaches our area from the west. An associated weak 
cold front will be pushed through our area Saturday. Models do not 
agree on the details with this system, but most generally agree that 
little or no phasing of the waves occurs and dynamics will not be 
strong for our area. Given the poor model run to run consistency and 
agreement and the fact that this is expected model behavior with 
these types of weaker and somewhat chaotic scenarios, it is best not 
to get too caught up in the details until we get closer. However, 
right now ensemble data suggests that CAPE will be limited and shear 
generally weak. Ensemble joint probabilities for SBCAPE > 500 J/kg 
and 0-500mb bulk shear > 30kts is generally around or less than 15% 
for our area, and using MUCAPE produces only slightly higher 
results. There is still time for things to change, but right now it 
appears that while a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, the 
probability of severe storms is quite low for Friday night into 
Saturday. Current total QPF shows around a quarter to three quarters 
of an inch of rainfall with this system. 

There is potential for a more significant system to bring another 
round of showers and storms early in the week, with the highest 
chance Monday night into Tuesday. Guidance suggests this more 
dynamic system will have better potential for a stronger LLJ that 
will tap into Gulf moisture. This leads to significantly greater 
joint probabilities of CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30kts 
relative to the weekend system. Right now the higher severe chances 
still look to be to our south and west, but this system will bear 
watching.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Clear and calm overnight under high pressure. Dry and mostly sunny
skies during the day with light W to SW winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  57  85  63 /   0   0  10  80 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  56  83  60 /  10   0  10  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  54  83  60 /   0   0  10  70 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  50  81  57 /   0   0  10  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KS


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