MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 231800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231800
KSZ000-OKZ000-232000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/eastern KS into north-central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 231800Z - 232000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21z across parts
of central Kansas and increase in coverage with time into
north-central Oklahoma later this afternoon/evening. Very large
hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts are expected. A
tornado watch will be need in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating through early afternoon has allow
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s across central KS
into northern OK ahead of a surface dryline. Strengthening southerly
low-level flow around 20-30 kt near the surface is maintaining low
to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-9.0
C/km per OUN and TOP 12z RAOBs). This is supporting MLCAPE near 2000
J/kg, with additional destabilization expected through afternoon
with continued heating/moistening. Convergence along the surface
boundary, coupled with modest height falls and surface pressure
falls along the I-35 corridor will support rapid thunderstorm
development this afternoon as a weakening cap erodes.

Vertically veering wind profiles are present in forecast soundings,
suggesting supercells will be possible. Midlevel flow is forecast to
increase late this afternoon into evening, resulting in
enlarge/curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight
above 2-3 km. Within this thermodynamic and kinematic parameter
space, expected initial supercells to pose an all-hazards risk,
particularly across south-central KS into north-central OK. Forecast
guidance suggests this corridor may be more favorable for
maintenance of discrete supercells. Further north along the surface
boundary, convection may tend to grow upscale toward a line during
the evening, with an accompany increase in severe wind potential in
addition to a continued tornado/hail risk.

..Leitman.. 04/23/2026

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   38699809 39719754 39959721 39999594 39779529 38569526
            36799597 36499624 36409683 36459743 36609791 36859818
            37399828 37699827 38699809

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

$$
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 * Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)