474
FXUS64 KMRX 231847
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
247 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday,
along with another day of low afternoon relative humidity.
- Increasing chances of showers and possibly storms late Friday
night into Saturday. Severe weather does not seem likely.
- Another round of showers and storms anticipated early next week,
with at least some potential for some strong to severe storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Calm, clear, and mild tonight with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
With high pressured centered over the region, Friday temps will be
continue to be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Most areas stay dry but some isolated diurnal convection
is possible across the east TN mountains and Cumberland Plateau
during the afternoon hours.
Friday night into Saturday, precip chances sharply on the rise as a
shortwave and frontal boundary approach and move through the area.
Most areas should see some rainfall at some point during this
timeframe. Average QPF amounts will likely range between 0.25 and
0.75 inches. Some low-end/moderate instability is expected but with
very weak shear in place, do not anticipate any severe weather at
this time. With the rain and clouds around, temps will be cooler and
in the mid 70s for most places. Rain and storms exit east Saturday
night as the short wave pushes east into the Carolinas.
A short stint of high pressure returns Saturday night into Sunday
ahead of our next system. This should keep us mostly dry on Sunday
with temps climbing back into the upper 70s to low 80s.
Most models try and hold on to ridging for Monday, which would keep
us mostly dry and still unseasonably warm. By Monday night/Tuesday
morning however, rain and storms are likely to move in just ahead of
a cold front. The timing isn't overly conducive to severe weather
but there is a low-end risk in place at the moment. Looking at LREF
joint probabilities of at least 500 J/kg CAPE and 30 kts of bulk
shear, 40 to 60% probs are in place across the Cumberland Plateau.
These probs quickly diminish as you go east into the central valley.
Higher probs exist further west, closer to Nashville. This aligns
well with SPC day 5 outlook where the eastern edge of the 15% risk
area stops in middle TN. We will continue to keep an eye on things,
as a shift in timing will increase/decrease our threat. Aside from
any severe weather, mountain winds look gusty as the 850mb winds
ramp up to around 30 to 40 kts ahead of the front. Wind gusts in the
mountains could be as high as 40 mph. With the prior rain on
Saturday, and additional rain Monday night/Tuesday, these high winds
shouldn't be of too much of a concern fire weather-wise.
The rest of the period will remain unsettled with mostly zonal flow
in place behind the cold front. This zonal flow will keep the door
open for additional systems to move into our area from the west.
With several systems set to move thorugh our area over the next 7
days, probs of at least 1" of rainfall are quite high for most areas
at around 80 to 90%. Probs of at least 1" are a little lower though
across northeast TN and southwest VA, at around 50 to 70% chance.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the period with light
southerly to southwesterly winds, generally less than 10kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 85 63 80 / 0 10 70 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 83 60 76 / 0 20 60 90
Oak Ridge, TN 54 83 60 76 / 0 20 70 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 80 56 72 / 0 10 30 90
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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