ACUS11 KWNS 261818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261818 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-262015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern and central Arkansas into the
ArkLaTex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 261818Z - 262015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated severe storms capable of
damaging winds with gusts of 60-65 mph and hail is expected to
increase by 20-21Z. Convective trends are being monitored for a
possible severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Early afternoon visible satellite shows a growing
cumulus field and isolated thunderstorm development from
south-central MO through northwest AR into northeast OK along a weak
surface front in the area. Ahead of the front, temperatures have
warmed into the mid to upper 90s, which, combined with
boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s, is yielding
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg with a weakening cap. 

In the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent, continued heating
and convergence along the front are expected to foster a gradual
increase in storms and related severe weather risk over the next 1-2
hours amidst a weakly sheared environment (i.e., bulk shear
magnitudes of generally less than 30 kt), per regional VWPs. As
such, the severe threat should remain somewhat isolated at least
initially with the primary hazards being locally damaging winds with
gusts of 60-65 mph and marginally severe hail.

Time-lagged HRRR and RRFS ensemble guidance has shown a consistent
signal for storm clustering to occur by late afternoon into early
evening, at which point the damaging wind threat could increase in
areal extent.

A separate area of severe storms may materialize later this
afternoon over the ArkLaTex, ahead of a surface low and multiple
MCVs approaching the region from the west/northwest. Here, too the
environment is expected to become supportive of some wind and hail
risk.

..Mead/Mosier.. 08/26/2026

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35239468 35689428 35959345 35669268 35249220 34379215
            33419254 33119322 33179410 33739482 35239468 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$

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