501 
FXUS64 KMRX 241057
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
657 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 647 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Isolated mountain showers today, more widespread rain and 
scattered thunderstorms on Saturday.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday into 
Tuesday, with low potential for some strong to severe storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Rain chances will finally begin to pick up beginning today. The 
incoming shortwave is still a day out, so forcing will be weak to 
nonexistent, but enough CAPE underneath a 500 mb inversion should 
allow for terrain forced showers to develop this afternoon, mainly 
in the mountains along the NC border, but I could see an isolated 
shower in the Plateau region as well. Won't rule out a lightning 
strike, but the inversion digs in right around the -10C layer, so 
storm depth into the favored ice crystal zones will be limited.

Shortwave riding in the westerly flow will really start to arrive 
for Saturday, unfortunately for those with outdoor activities 
planned. CAMs have been all over the place with how this unfolds, 
but generally a few steady rain showers will be likely in the mid to 
late morning hours. Then in the afternoon with the presence of the 
weak trough, the atmosphere really becomes favorable for scattered 
thunderstorms. There's some shear present, primarily speed shear, so 
a strong thunderstorm with breezy winds and small hail is a 
potential. Otherwise much needed rainfall will fall.

Sunday looks to be mainly a drying out day. Guidance has thin CAPE 
profiles, and with the suppressive midlevel ridge building back in, 
expect dry to mostly dry weather. The next shortwave will be moving 
across the upper tier of the country to start the week, with a 
punching subtropical jet extending across the Southern Plains. This 
is the focus of the SPC's extended outlook for Monday, with a large 
risk to our west. We're likely to get the sloppy seconds of whatever 
comes of that system, which in part depends on what occurs Sunday 
over the Southern Plains. Shear, especially low level shear, will be 
favorable for strong to severe, but timing is once again aiming to 
be in the evening or nighttime hours. 

Beyond Tuesday morning, the subtropical jet enhancing westerlies 
will stay dominant through the week, possibly coupled with a slow 
moving frontal boundary, presenting our region with an unsettled 
pattern and keeping low to medium chances for rain in the for the 
remainder of the work week. Over the course of the next 7 days, 1 
inch probabilities are fairly high area wide, and 2 inch 
probabilities are 20% Tri Cities, 40% Knoxville, 60% Chattanooga. If 
the heavier amounts can come to fruition that would be very 
beneficial for fighting the drought.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Winds will increase from a westerly to southwesterly direction
with increasing clouds around 10,000 feet AGL. Some gusts are
possible, but winds will be fairly light overall. Heading into
tonight, rain chances will increase from the west, but rain was
left out of the TAFs as any potential impacts would likely be
after the TAF period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             84  62  78  57 /  10  70  90  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  60  73  54 /  10  50 100  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  60  73  54 /  10  60  90  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  55  71  51 /  10  20  90  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)