032 
FXUS64 KMRX 261839
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 236 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026
 
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly for the Southern 
Appalachians
  mountains, and the southern Plateau and parts of the southeast 
  Tennessee for late this afternoon and early evening. 

- Highest chances for showers and storms will be tomorrow
  afternoon area-wide and mainly far east Tennessee mountains and
  southwest North Carolina for Friday.

- Most locations will be dry for the weekend with return of hot
  and muggy conditions returning early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Currently, a MCV is moving southeast across northwest Tennessee into 
toward the southern Plateau by late this afternoon. Airmass is 
marginally unstable across the southern Plateau and southeast 
Tennessee. Expect scattered showers and thunder to move into this 
region by late this afternoon through the early evening hours. Main 
concern is windy west to northwest winds along outflow boundary with 
gusts up to 30-35 mph.

Otherwise, satellite shows some CI development across the far east 
Tennessee mountains. Isolated to scattered showers are possible 
there through early evening.

For tonight, mainly dry with a good deal of high and some mid-level 
clouds early then clearing. Some fog development is expected 
especially near area-waterways.

For Friday, a weak short-wave will move into the region with 
associated frontal boundary. Instability and moisture increases over 
the area with MLCAPES of 1500-2000. DCAPE of 700-900 noted with mid-
level lapse rates of 6 to 6.5 degrees. Shear is almost non existent. 
Enough mid-level dry air to support strong and gusty winds with the 
stronger storms.

For Saturday, an inverted trough axis is over the eastern sections 
of Tennessee with convergence and upslope flow into the far east 
Tennessee mountains and southwest North Carolina. Afternoon 
convection is expected there, otherwise dry.

For Sunday into early next week, upper ridge moves east into the 
southern Appalachians. Rising heights and strong subsidence will 
once again produce mainly dry with hot and muggy conditions. Highs 
in the upper 80s to mid 90s are anticipated with heat indices across 
much of the valley increasing to 100-105 degrees. Some isolated 
storms are possible across the orographic features but the main 
story will be the return of the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

An area of convection will move across CHA between 21-23Z.
Scattered showers and possibly thunder is expected with wind gusts
up to 30 knots possible.

MVFR/IFR fog is possible at TRI otherwise plenty of high and mid-
level clouds overnight. For Thursdsay, afternoon convection is
expected at all TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  94  70  92 /  20  40  20  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  91  68  89 /   0  30  50  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  90  67  89 /  10  40  50  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  87  65  86 /   0  30  40  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


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