Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 27 2026 - 12Z Sat Aug 29 2026

...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm threat across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Thursday...

...Heavy rainfall threat continues across the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through...

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the South-Central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...


An amplified pattern continues with a persistent upper-level ridging
across the Four Corner and Southwest U.S., while broad troughing extends
into eastern U.S. A series of northern-stream shortwaves will progress
eastward, which will help push the frontal boundary over the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley into the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Lower
Mississippi Valley. Increasing low-level moisture and instability ahead of
the slow-moving frontal boundary will support showers and thunderstorms,
which may lead to heavy rainfall/flash flooding risk across the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast and Gulf Coast on Thursday.
Additionally, locally strong to severe storms may develop across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, which may produce lightning, hail, isolated
tornadoes, and damaging winds. On Friday, much of the northern portion of
the cold front moves offshore, while the trailing front stalls across the
Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. This will continue the severe
thunderstorm and flash flooding threat along the boundary.

The frontal boundary will also drape across the central/southern Plains
northward into the northern Rockies/Plains, bringing chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. As the slow-moving boundary
interacts with moist and unstable airmass, clustering of thunderstorms may
develop. This will lead to a flash flooding risk across central/southern
Plains and a severe thunderstorm threat across the central Plains and
northern Rockies for Thursday. On Friday, the severe weather and heavy
rainfall threat moves into the northern/central Plains as the frontal
boundary lifts northward. Across the southwest, monsoonal moisture will
continue to extend northward around the western periphery of the ridge,
supporting diurnally driven thunderstorm across the Southwest into the
Rockies and Great Basin through Friday. Strong organized storms may
produce isolated flash flooding, especially over burn scars, urban areas,
and slot canyons.

The persistent upper-level ridge continues to bring dangerous heat across
the Southwest and portions of Texas through Friday. Daytime highs in the
upper 90s to low 100s, with isolated areas reaching between 100-115
degrees in the Southwest. Record-breaking overnight temperatures will
limit recovery from the heat, which may result in heat-related illnesses
for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Therefore, expect Major
to Extreme HeatRisk across portions of the Southwest and Southern Texas.
See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion for
more information.

Otherwise, temperatures will somewhat cool over the central and southern
Plains as the frontal boundary moves southward. Additionally, a cold front
and a upper-level trough will move over the Pacific Northwest bringing
cooler temperatures and chances for showers across portions of the
Intermountain West.



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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