MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
ACUS11 KWNS 241651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241650
OKZ000-TXZ000-241845-
Mesoscale Discussion 0516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Areas affected...South-central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 241650Z - 241845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large/very-large hail and a couple
of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon. A watch is likely, but
timing remains uncertain. Convective trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has been noted on visible satellite
over the last 30-45 minutes in the vicinity of Ada. This is
occurring just northeast of a surface low near Wichita Falls. Upper
60s to low 70s F dewpoints in south-central Oklahoma suggest very
limited MLCIN when modifying the 12Z OUN sounding. That said,
large-scale ascent is not strong and the surface low has weakened
slightly over the last hour. It is not clear that these initial
attempts at initiation will be sustained. It will likely take
additional surface heating (perhaps into the low 80s F) for updrafts
to mature. 35-45 kts of effective shear and steep mid-level lapse
rates will favor supercells capable of large to very-large hail.
Though low-level winds are not that strong, a tornado risk will
likely accompany any discrete convection near the outflow boundary
as well. Convective trends will continued to be monitored, but a
watch is likely this afternoon.
..Wendt.. 04/24/2026
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33859569 33779584 33709626 33739717 33919770 34329787
34709797 34989762 35199654 35139601 34749566 34329566
33859569
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
$$
--- ScorpioBBS/QWK v0.32a (Linux/x86_64)
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)
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