917 
FXUS64 KMRX 241835
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Isolated mountain showers this afternoon, more widespread rain and 
  scattered thunderstorms on Saturday.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday into 
  Tuesday, with low potential for some strong to severe storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Currently, terrain based showers have developed. Meso-analysis shows 
limited instability with CAPE 250 or less so will keep only showers 
in the forecast.

For Saturday, a short-wave with RRQ upper-level divergence will move 
across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. A band of 
showers will initially move into the region in the morning hours. 
SPC HREF and deterministic models show increasing instability in the 
afternoon with ensemble mean CAPES of 750-1000. A broken line of 
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. Convective activity will 
dissipate around sunset.

For Sunday, short-wave moves east with subsidence behind the system 
and building upper ridge producing a 700mb capping inversion. Only 
orographic lift over the far east Tennessee mountains will produce 
scattered terrain convection.  Most locations will be dry and warm.

For Monday, upper ridging will continue to build over the area with 
tightening pressure gradient as surface ridging moves east into 
the Carolinas. A breezy and very warm day is on tap.

For Monday night through Wednesday, a series of northern and 
southern stream waves will produce an unsettled weather pattern. 
Confidence is low on how these series of systems will develop and 
how phasing is expected. There is a chance of severe storms during 
this period and will be monitored for later updates.

For Thursday and Friday, northwest flow aloft will be the dominant 
weather story with waves rotating down in this flow possibliy 
producing showers and storms. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Main forecast aviation concern is the incoming band of convection
for Saturday morning. Limited instability in the morning so
thunder chances are low but increasing in the afternoon.

Otherwise, tightening pressure gradients this afternoon will be
gusts in excess of 15+ knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  76  57  83 /  60  90  30  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  72  55  79 /  30 100  40  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  74  54  80 /  40  90  30  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              54  74  54  75 /  10  90  60  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


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