381 
FXUS64 KMRX 251055
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Scattered rain showers this morning and scattered thunderstorms 
this afternoon.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday into 
Tuesday, with low potential for strong storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next
  week. Medium to high rain chances on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

With the arrival of a weak shortwave today expecting weak showers 
this morning followed by a few scattered thunderstorms this 
afternoon, in both the mountains and valley. Been curiously watching 
the CAMs flip flop run to run on extent of both the morning showers 
and afternoon storms, so I vote for the most widespread rain as 
Nature wants to bestow upon us, given the drought. Given the 
uncertainty even in the near term spread of guidance, wouldn't be 
expecting constant rain all day, a few periods of rain and scattered 
storms is a more reasonable expectation. Unfortunately this means 
there's bust potential for those who miss out on rain. Fortunately 
this isn't the last batch of rain. 

With Sunday likely to be dry, we look towards next week for 
additional rain chances. Monday night has continued to look 
unimpressive, with the AI-IFS guidance indicating a really late 
overnight into Tuesday morning arrival times for storms. Long range 
NAM has a steep surface inversion should storms arrive that late, 
which would significantly alter storm severity and hazard type, 
though elevated strong convection could still occur. Still, given 
the breadth of convective solutions, it's really just a monitor and 
see on timing and CAPE profiles.

Heading into the midweek the upper jet re-strengthens and a slowly 
sagging cold front are likely to spur additional convection on 
Wednesday. The good news is multiple opportunities should eventually 
stack up and lead to decent rainfall results across a wide portion 
of the region, even if not every person scores in every round. The 
swiss cheese model of trying to escape drought via multiple rounds 
of scattered thunderstorms. Even at the end of next week there's 
potential for a southern low to go riding along the southeastern 
front, yielding continued unsettled weather even if we're on the 
north side of the front by then. The longwave trough helping to push 
the front south also means cooler weather by the end of the work 
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Increasing rain chances are expected throughout the day with
showers and storms developing in the afternoon hours. Outside of
rain, VFR is expected to persist with MVFR or less likely within
rain showers. Winds will be pretty light and from generally a
southwesterly direction. Rain coverage will decrease overnight
with fog possible in places that receive more rainfall. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             76  58  83  58 /  80  30  10  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  74  55  80  55 /  70  30  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       74  55  81  55 /  70  20  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              75  52  77  48 /  80  30  20  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


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