MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 252005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252004
TXZ000-OKZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern OK into
north-central/northeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 252004Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells with a threat of tornadoes (possibly EF2+),
very large to giant hail, and localized severe gusts may develop
from late afternoon into early evening. Tornado Watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...A complex surface pattern is in place across the
southern Plains this afternoon. A broad surface low extends from
northeast NM into the TX South Plains. An outflow-influenced
boundary is lifting northward as a warm front from southern OK into
northeast TX. A cold front is moving into northwest OK, and a
surface trough extending from west-central OK into northwest TX will
sharpen into a more well-defined dryline as heating/mixing continues
this afternoon.

At least isolated storm development will be possible in the vicinity
of all of these boundaries by late afternoon, as the dryline moves
eastward and warm front continues to gradually lift northward. Rich
low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F)
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (as observed in a recent NSSL
LIFT sounding near Duncan, OK) are resulting in strong to extreme
buoyancy near and south of the warm front, with MLCAPE in the
2000-4000 J/kg range. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will favor
supercell development.

Despite generally modest low-level flow, tornado potential may be
maximized near the warm front, where 20-25 kt of southwesterly 1 km
flow (as depicted by various short-term guidance) atop backed
surface winds will support 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2. Given the
very favorable instability and locally enhanced SRH, any supercell
that can track along the warm frontal zone could pose a threat of a
strong to intense tornado. Some tornado potential could also
eventually evolve south of the warm front, if any supercells can be
sustained within the richly moist environment as low-level shear
gradually increases into early evening.

Otherwise, the very favorable thermodynamic environment and strong
deep-layer shear will support a threat of very large to giant hail
(2-4+ inches in diameter). Localized severe gusts will also be
possible, especially if any clustering of intense supercells occurs
with time. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 4 PM CDT in order to
cover these threats.

..Dean/Guyer.. 04/25/2026

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35169822 35539808 35589789 35609725 35739671 35849602
            35809545 35649515 35339471 34809459 34399457 34089459
            33329463 33029486 32849640 32899811 33439819 34039820
            35169822

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

$$


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