ACUS01 KWNS 281232
SWODY1
SPC AC 281231

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE 
NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND 
MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ME......

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the central and
northern Plains, northern Georgia into the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic, central and eastern Maine, and from parts of the Great
Basin and Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies.

...Maine...
A shortwave trough is evident this morning over the St Lawrence
Valley.  This trough will track eastward across northern New
England, with an associated cold front moving through ME.  Models
are consistent in the depiction of scattered thunderstorm
development along the front by mid-late afternoon.  Forecast
soundings show sufficient CAPE and deep layer shear to promote a few
organized or potentially supercell storms capable of locally
damaging wind gusts and hail.

...GA to Mid-Atlantic Region...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will be present today over much of the
eastern states, with a diffuse surface cold front extending from VA
into GA.  Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along
the front this afternoon, with slow-moving but strong storms
possible.  Moderate CAPE, rather high PWAT values, and limited
deep-layer shear will promote isolated strong storms capable of
water-loaded downbursts.

...Great Basin into WY...
The upper ridge will remain centered over NM, while a 50+ knot
mid-level jet rotates eastward from NV into ID/UT/WY.  Scattered
high-based showers and storms are expected over a large part of the
Great Basin into WY, with the strongest cells capable of damaging
wind gusts.

...Dakotas...
As the high-based convection over WY spreads eastward into western
ND/SD, it will encounter greater low-level moisture and CAPE, likely
resulting in some intensification.  A few bowing structures are
possible in this area this evening, capable of locally damaging wind
gusts and hail.  This complex of storms may persist after midnight
with a continued risk of gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Kerr.. 08/28/2026

$$
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