187 
FXUS64 KMRX 251750
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
150 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday 
  into Tuesday, with low potential for strong storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next
  week. Medium to high rain chances on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Regional radar and satellite imagery shows plenty off low and mid
clouds still around East Tennessee with embedded scattered rain 
showers ongoing. Further west however, convective coverage is
increasing fairly rapidly, with some thunder being noted in the
southern Cumberland plateau already. Most of the high resolution 
guidance favors additional development in the southern parts of 
Middle Tennessee this afternoon in an area of relatively lower 
pressure and surface convergence as noted on satellite imagery. 
These solutions then show that activity then transitioning ESE 
into the southern half of the Tennessee valley into the late 
afternoon and evening hours. This seems reasonable to me, but the
current trends also suggest that maintaining rain chances area 
wide through late this evening is a reasonable approach too. This
is what the NBM output 

Rain chances wrap up tonight, with ridging building overhead on 
Sunday into Monday. Expect dry conditions during this time. By 
Monday afternoon however, strong cyclogenesis will be occurring in 
the upper midwest. This system will push a front through our area 
Monday night into Tuesday morning. The overnight arrival time and 
the stronger dynamics being displaced to our northwest suggest the 
severe threat with this system is not very high for our area. Will 
continue to monitor for now, but if these trends in timing, 
thermodynamic profiles, etc, continue then the severe threat looks 
quite low.

Heading into the midweek the upper jet re-strengthens and a slowly 
sagging cold front are likely to spur additional convection on 
Wednesday. The good news is multiple opportunities should eventually 
stack up and lead to decent rainfall results across a wide portion 
of the region, even if not every person scores in every round. The 
swiss cheese model of trying to escape drought via multiple rounds 
of scattered thunderstorms. Even at the end of next week there's 
potential for a southern low to go riding along the southeastern 
front, yielding continued unsettled weather even if we're on the 
north side of the front by then. The longwave trough helping to push 
the front south also means cooler weather by the end of the work 
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

SHRA and TSRA coverage will increase through the afternoon and
evening hours. Will maintain a TEMPO for those conditions at all
terminals to account for this. Winds should remain light through
the period, with variable direction this afternoon becoming 
steady northerly this evening and overnight. Fog development
tonight seems likely but confidence in how widespread and how
dense it becomes is not particularly high. KTRI probably has the
best chance for calm winds and fog development, but it could occur
anywhere.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             57  83  59  82 /  20   0  10  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  81  56  83 /  20   0   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       53  82  56  83 /  10   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              52  79  49  80 /  30   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


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