512 
FXUS64 KMRX 260655
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 255 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Fog is present this morning, be aware of patchy dense fog 
significantly reducing visibilities.

- Next round of showers and storms anticipated early Tuesday, with 
low potential for strong storms.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms likely on Wednesday.

- Low rain chances Thursday into next weekend, with cooler weather
  arriving. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Thanks to the earlier rain showers, fog has formed, with nighttime 
microphysics imagery and airport observations indicating valley fog 
has already formed across portions of northern Tennessee into 
southwestern Virginia. Where fog is currently prevalent, a Dense Fog 
Advisory is in effect. Fog is still possible elsewhere in East 
Tennessee and southwest North Carolina, especially in fog prone 
locations such as the I-75 corridor near Cleveland.

With the shortwave departing, the midlevel ridge builds back in and 
will yield a dry Sunday. Monday is also likely to be dry, as classic 
physics based guidance has moved into alignment with the AI-IFS on 
pushing off showers and thunderstorms into early Tuesday. 
Fortunately the parent surface low will be ejecting to the far 
western Great Lakes with this system, keeping a lot of the better 
dynamics far to our west. A few strong storms may be possible, 
depending on how much CAPE, especially elevated CAPE, can be 
realized Tuesday morning. Guidance continues to indicate a stout 
inversion between the surface and at least the first km of 
atmosphere, so despite the LLJ ramping with storm arrival, not 
expecting a tornado threat.

Heading into Wednesday a weaker vorticity lobe in the larger upper 
trough over the western Great Lakes will be swinging around, and 
coupled with the re-strengthening westerly jet will help fire 
another round of showers and thunderstorms. This second system 
should result in a cold front pushing from north to south through 
Tennessee by Thursday. This airmass change will yield cooler weather 
thereafter through the weekend. Will have to watch morning 
temperatures, guidance is indicating 20-40% chance for frost 
friendly temperatures next weekend across northeastern Tennessee 
into southwestern Virginia. High uncertainty by next weekend on 
whether or not we see any rain by then or a dry spell for the 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

After recent rainfall, fog has been expanding across the region.
TRI has already seen IFR to LIFR with CHA and TYS expected to see
reductions in the coming hours. MVFR will likely be more common at
these sites, but IFR to even LIFR is possible. After morning fog,
improvements back to VFR are expected. Northeasterly winds and
decreasing cloud cover will continue through the day with no rain
expected at the sites. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  59  82  59 /   0   0   0  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  80  55  83  58 /   0   0   0  60 
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  54  83  58 /   0   0   0  70 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  48  80  52 /   0   0   0  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for 
     Anderson-Bledsoe-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Marion-Morgan-
     Scott TN-Sequatchie-Union.

VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Russell-
     Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


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