374 
FXUS64 KMRX 281742
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
142 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 137 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026
 
- Strengthening high pressure aloft, and subsequent warming
  temperatures this weekend through much of next week. Afternoon
  highs in the mid 90s with heat index values of 100-105 degrees
  seem plausible for the middle of next week.

- Dry conditions should prevail for most places through the coming
  week, though some isolated storms each day can't be ruled out.
  That being said, after this afternoon, the best chances will be
  over the Smokies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Upper heights will begin to rise tonight through the weekend as 
upper troughing over the eastern CONUS begins to relent, and a 
strong upper ridge shifts east from New Mexico towards Tennessee. 
This ridge eventually becomes centered over East Tennessee and the 
southern Appalachian region by Tue/Wed of next week and remains in 
control of our weather through the end of the period. 

Generally speaking, most areas will be dry through the end of the 
forecast period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, guidance 
is pretty insistent on daily rain chances over mainly the Smokies 
each afternoon and evening. The ridge, while strong, isn't 
exceptionally strong and there are troughs moving through southern
Canada that keep it from amplifying too much. So it seems
reasonable to me to expect at least some isolated convection over
the Smokies each day. Equally as reasonable is the lack of 
convection in the lower elevations beneath the strong subsidence.

As for temperatures, highs warm to around 90 in the valley this 
weekend, and then firmly into the low to mid 90s from Tuesday 
onward. Chattanooga may even break into the upper 90s before it's 
all said and done. Not record high territory, but definitely hot and 
above normal for this time of year. In addition to the warm 
temperatures, dewpoints will also be fairly high which will result 
in heat index values of 100-105 degrees many afternoons next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Afternoon convection will be present for for the first several
hours of this TAF cycle. Expect convection to remain mainly near
the higher terrain, but cannot completely rule out it drifting
near an airport. Outside of any storms VFR conditions are 
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  91  69  91 /   0  20  10  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       66  91  69  91 /   0  10  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  88  65  88 /   0  20   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...99


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