Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 29 2026 - 12Z Mon Aug 31 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Great Basin on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest through Monday...

A quasi-stationary front from the North Carolina Coast roughly
southwestward to the Southern Plains will slowly dissipate from west to
east to the North Carolina Coast by Sunday morning. Near and south of the
front, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Southern
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and Central/Eastern Gulf Coast through
Sunday evening. From Sunday night to Monday morning, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast. Elsewhere,
weak onshore flow and upper-level energy will help produce rain over parts
of the Pacific Northwest on Saturday into Saturday evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Great Basin and into the
Northern Plains, with a strong diurnal component from late afternoon into
late evening Saturday and Sunday. Monsoonal moisture will also produce
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the Southwest. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
the Southwest through Monday.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

Moreover, a front extending from the Northern Plains southwestward to
Northern California will remain quasi-stationary through early Sunday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. In addition, on Sunday into
Monday morning, a stationary front will expand eastward from the Northern
Plains into the Great Lakes and extend into the Mid-Atlantic by Monday.
Overnight Saturday, the showers and thunderstorms will expand over the
Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will grow into New England from
Sunday evening into Monday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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