375 
FXUS64 KMRX 290648
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
248 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026
 
- Hot and humid weather arrives this weekend. Afternoon highs in
  the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 100-105 degrees
  seem plausible for the middle of next week.

- Dry conditions should prevail for most places through the coming
  week, though some isolated storms each day can't be ruled out.
  That being said, after this afternoon, the best chances will be
  over the Smokies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

It's a quiet night across eastern TN/southwestern VA/southern NC. 
The majority of this evening's convective activity has occurred off 
to the south and east of our forecast area. For tonight, 
temperatures cool into the low to mid 60s under mostly clear skies. 
Winds are light to calm and we could see areas of fog develop near 
the regions waterways. Any fog that does form will quickly burn off 
after sunrise Saturday morning. 

Our weather pattern over the next week or so will be dominated by an 
upper level ridge feature that'll keep us hot, humid, and mostly 
dry. Any afternoon convection that does fire should form along the 
Smokies and drift east into the Carolinas. This upper level ridge 
will do a few things for us. First, we'll see warmer temperatures 
return. Highs in the 90s each day with some locations seeing 
temperatures in the mid to possibly upper 90s in SE TN. Second, 
it'll usher in higher surface dew points and that'll combine with 
the warmer temperatures to support higher heat indices in the 100 to 
105 range each day. Lastly, outside of the Smokies it'll be pretty 
dry. While this ridge is strong, it isn't immune to the train of 
shortwave troughs guidance brings through over the next week or so. 
Looking ahead, there is some signal to support a stronger trough 
just in time for next weekend. That could help nudge this ridge back 
to the west and allow for slightly cooler and drier air to return. 
However, that's over a week away and guidance doesn't handle these 
types of upper level patterns too good imho. For now, sit back and 
enjoy the end of Summer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Predominant VFR conditions and light winds less than 10kts for 
the 06Z TAF cycle. HREF probs of MVFR vis at TRI are less than 
10% for early this morning, thus, will maintain VFR. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             93  72  92  71 /  10   0  20   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  70  91  70 /  10   0  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       91  70  91  69 /  10   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  65  88  67 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...KRS


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