867 
FXUS64 KMRX 261741
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
141 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Next round of showers and storms anticipated early Tuesday, with
  low potential for strong storms.

- An additional round of showers and thunderstorms likely early
  Wednesday morning. While chances for severe storms are slightly
  higher than Monday night, the overall likelihood of severe
  storms remains low.

- Low rain chances Thursday into next weekend, with cooler weather
  arriving. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The main takeaway for the coming week is that we are likely to see 
multiple rounds of widespread, and much needed, rainfall across the 
entirety of the NWS Morristown forecast area. There could also be 
some chances for some severe storms mixed in, mainly Tuesday 
night into Wednesday morning, but confidence remains low overall.

An upper trough and associated surface low will lift northeast 
through the upper midwest on Monday, dragging a front towards East 
Tennessee Monday night into Tuesday morning. Showers associated with 
this feature arrive in our CWA around or shortly after daybreak 
Tuesday morning. I don't believe there to be much support for any 
severe storms with this activity. Depending on which model sounding 
you look at, there's some elevated instability that could support 
thunder and possibly some small hail. But that is about it, 
and there's a substantial low level inversion in place so surface-
based convection seems highly unlikely and thus negates any notable 
threat of damaging winds or other hazards. 

The aforementioned front will stall out just to our west on Tuesday. 
However it will eventually be pushed through our CWA early Wednesday 
by a trailing upper disturbance that moves through the greater 
Tennessee river valley in the westerly flow aloft Tuesday night into 
Wednesday morning. This disturbance will be aided by a strengthening 
subtropical jet over the I-40 corridor between Arkansas and New 
Mexico, firing off another round of convection across Middle 
Tennessee Tuesday night that  will push into our forecast area 
during the morning hours on Wednesday. Once again the early morning 
hour arrival time doesn't favor severe chances overall. However the 
low level inversion is much weaker Tue night and forecast soundings 
do show better shear and slightly more instability, including some 
noteworthy DCAPE on the order of a few hundred J/kg in the 
Chattanooga area. The current SPC Day 3 Outlook has a Slight Risk 
area that extends east into our Cumberland Plateau areas and parts 
of the southern TN valley in East Tennessee. Despite the overnight 
arrival this seems reasonable, with models favoring a damaging wind 
threat should any severe storms occur.

Behind the front, cooler temperatures are on tap through the 
weekend. Temperatures could drop low enough for there to be some 
frost potential by next weekend in our far northeast Tennessee and 
southwestern Virginia counties. It is possible we see another 
round of rain next weekend, but there is a high degree of 
uncertainty there.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

All sites should see a return to VFR flight categories in the next 
hour or two, either by CIGS lifting or scattering out. By late this 
afternoon SKC to FEW250 should be the rule. No fog or low clouds are 
expected tonight. With regards to winds, expect gusty winds to 
around 15kt to continue at KTYS for another couple of hours 
before gradients relax. Otherwise, light and variable conditions are 
expected at KTYS and KTRI. Similar conditions will be seen at KCHA 
but high pressure east of the Appalchians will switch the winds to a 
sustained SELY direction later tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             58  81  60  77 /   0   0  60  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  83  57  75 /   0   0  60  70 
Oak Ridge, TN                       54  82  57  75 /   0   0  70  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              48  80  52  72 /   0   0  40  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)