631 
FXUS64 KMRX 270646
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
246 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Next round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday night 
into early Tuesday, with low potential for strong storms. Gusty 
winds in the foothills and portions of the Plateau are likely.

- An additional round of showers and thunderstorms likely late 
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low potential again for strong to 
severe storms.

- Low rain chances Thursday into next weekend, with cooler weather 
arriving. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

At least two rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected over 
the next three days, primarily late tonight into Tuesday morning, 
and again late Tuesday night into Wednesday. These should give 
healthy amounts of rainfall to much of the region. Environment does 
not look overly favorable for severe weather tonight, though we'll 
watch it anyways. Late timing arrival for storms, likely past 
midnight, means a stout inversion will be allowed to set up. There's 
still plenty of MUCAPE available for thunderstorms, but not 
confident we'll see a significant threat beyond small hail, gusty 
winds, and lightning. Winds on the Plateau, especially northern 
Plateau, may be gusting to near wind advisory criteria in advance of 
the storms, as winds just above the surface will be 40 knots. Any 
strong convective downdraft can also grab a hold of this low level 
jet. Meanwhile a strong temperature gradient is likely to fuel 
strong winds in the mountain wave prone foothills, with gusts to 40 
mph possible. 

Second disturbance will bring a second round of showers and 
thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday along with the cold 
front, effecting an airmass change in our area. Once more will have 
to watch for strong thunderstorms during this period, although the 
LLJ is weaker for this second round of storms. Effective shear is 
still strong enough to be favorable for storms, the biggest question 
is still the CAPE profile and lapse rates. Current soundings 
indicate rather poor lapse rates and low CAPE, likely a big limit 
for severe potential. The ideal solution is we get widespread 
beneficial rainfall. 

Post front, we'll trend a little cooler, with still the potential 
for frost each morning from Friday into the weekend in cooler spots 
of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. We've also been 
trending steadily drier Thursday and onwards, with guidance 
indicating large mature troughs far to our north, and active weather 
along the Gulf coast, keeping us stuck in the middle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Quiet aviation conditions are expected for the rest of the night
and into the morning hours with light winds and limited cloud
cover. Fog is possible in some areas, but the probability is
limited regarding development at the TAF sites. Throughout the
day, southerly to southeasterly winds will increase with gusts
near 20 kts possible at CHA. Winds will likely continue into the
first part of the night ahead of potential showers and storms. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  59  78  64 /   0  60  70  90 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  57  77  62 /   0  60  70  90 
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  56  76  62 /   0  60  70  90 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  52  74  57 /   0  60  70  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


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