Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 30 2026 - 00Z Tue Sep 01 2026

...Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the Great Basin
into tonight...

...Strong thunderstorms expected to move across the Northern Plains later
on Sunday...

...Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across the Four Corners region Sunday
and Monday...

A more active weather pattern is expected to develop across the western
U.S. as a couple of upper-level low/troughs are forecast to move through
the region. Showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of the leading trough
have already triggered across the Four Corners states into southwestern
Wyoming this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the
vicinity of northern Utah as most susceptible to a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms through tonight. In addition, WPC is highlighting a slight
risk of excessive rainfall across the northern Great Basin and portions of
Arizona through tonight. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars being the most vulnerable.

From Sunday into Monday, the next upper-level trough is forecast to move
onshore across California toward the Great Basin. This more subtle trough
could become more amplified to bring a higher chance of more widespread
showers and thunderstorms for the Four Corners states. Therefore, WPC has
expanded the slight risk of excessive rainfall for this region for both
days. Areas of heavy rain may lead to localized rapid runoff from streams
leading to flash flooding.

Meanwhile, fine and cooler-than-normal temperatures for late August have
overspread the entire northeastern quarter of the country behind a cold
front. The trailing portion of the front will remain nearly stationary
across the Southeast, where showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
most active during the late-day hours with localized flooding possible. A
weak low-pressure area just off the central to eastern Gulf Coast will
also maintain a good chance of showers and thunderstorms nearby for the
next couple of days. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected to be most
active in the late-day hours across the Sunshine State.

The trough moving through the Pacific Northwest will first bring showers
and embedded thunderstorms from west to east closer to the Canadian border
for the remainder of this weekend. Meanwhile, a low-pressure wave is
gradually developing over the northern Plains. As the main trough ejects
eastward near the U.S.-Canadian border Sunday into Monday, expect a round
of strong thunderstorms to sweep from west to east across the northern
Plains later on Sunday, reaching the upper Midwest overnight Sunday or
early Monday. Otherwise, expect some showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms across the Great Lakes to northern New England as a
reinforcing cold front dips into the region through this weekend.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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