846 
FXUS64 KMRX 291736
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
136 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026
 
- Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 
  100-105 degrees seem plausible for the middle of next week.

- Dry conditions should prevail for most places through the coming
  week, though some isolated storms each day can't be ruled out.
  That being said, after this afternoon, the best chances will be
  over the Smokies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Currently the afternoon convection has started in the far southern 
Appalachian Mountains on the TN/NC/GA border area. There is very 
little steering flow present out there as ridging builds in from the 
west.

The upcoming week looks to be a rather unpleasant return to hot and 
muggy conditions as an upper level ridge locks in over the southern 
United States. This will lead to temperatures climbing into the 90's 
for most locations every afternoon this week. And unfortunately 
along with this the dew points will rise back into the upper 60's to 
lower 70's making for high heat index values near or just above the 
triple digit mark. Any afternoon convection that does fire should 
form along the Smokies and drift east into the Carolinas. Outside of 
the southern Appalachian Mountains it will remain pretty dry this 
week for most of the Valley. There is a possibility a shortwave 
moving around the ridge comes in a bit stronger and is able to make 
a dent into it and bring in more widespread storms, but this looks 
somewhat unlikely at this time. Looking ahead, there is some signal 
to support a stronger trough just in time for next weekend. That 
could help nudge this ridge back to the west and allow for slightly 
cooler and drier air to return. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Afternoon convection present once again, but it should remain
close enough to the mountains to not impact an airport. Outside of
any rogue storms, VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  92  71  94 /   0  20   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  91  70  92 /   0  10   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  91  69  92 /   0   0   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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