MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 271237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271236
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-271400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Eastern/northern Missouri and southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156...157...

Valid 271236Z - 271400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156, 157 continues.

SUMMARY...Elevated storms will persist through mid morning into west
central and southern Illinois with the threat for large hail.  A
separate MCS will spread eastward from WW #156 into WW #157.

DISCUSSION...Elevated storms continue in a zone of low-level warm
advection on the nose of a 50 kt low-level jet.  This area has been
near the east edge of the destabilization aloft overnight, and this
trend should continue with storms into western and southern IL,
where large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be the main
threat.

Farther west, earlier supercells in KS/MO have evolved into multiple
line segments with occasional mesovortices.  The strongest portions
of the line have been more north-south oriented, orthogonal to the
deep-layer shear vectors and with substantial streamwise vorticity
in the low levels.  Embedded circulations will continue to be
possible, though the storms may slightly out pace northward
expansion of the surface warm sector and associated surface-based
buoyancy.  An isolated mesovortex tornado could occur, but the
primary threats will remain damaging winds and large hail in the near term.

..Thompson.. 04/27/2026

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38119068 38389265 38589297 39399222 39959206 40059126
            40009095 39609044 38848874 38238800 36958860 36868917
            38119068

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
 * Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)