064 
FXUS64 KMRX 280628
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area late 
tonight/early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong/severe storm possible 
mainly Plateau and southeast Tennessee. Main threat will be strong 
and gusty winds.

- Windy conditions for the far east Tennessee mountains/foothills 
tonight/early Tuesday morning. Gusts up to 50 mph possible.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday evening 
into Wednesday. Potential of strong to severe storms but timing, 
intensity, and extent of the severe thunderstorms remain low.

- Another round of mainly rain showers expected Friday through
  Saturday. Thunder chances are quite low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the East Coast tonight as a 
shortwave moves through the Great Lakes. Nearly zonal flow will be 
over the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, a low is moving through 
the Great Lakes with a cold front currently over Illinois into 
Missouri and Arkansas. A line of showers and storms is along and 
ahead of this front. Scattered storms have developed over Middle 
Tennessee. CAM guidance has these storms forming a line and falling 
apart as it moves into the region. Still some strong to severe 
storms will be possible mainly in the Plateau counties and Southern 
Tennessee Valley. Gusty winds will be the primary threat as the line 
moves through the region late tonight into the early morning hours. 

With southerly winds increasing overnight, downslope wind 
enhancement is expected in the East Tennessee mountains and 
foothills with gusts up to 50 mph expected in downslope prone spots. 
Winds will peak overnight and begin decreasing by daybreak. 850 mb 
winds will peak around 40 to 45 knots in the Tennessee Valley. Cold 
air damming on the North Carolina side of the mountains is enhancing 
the pressure gradient between the Tennessee Valley and the North 
Carolina mountains and will increase downslope potential to the 
Tennessee foothills. 

Rain will clear out Tuesday morning as the cold front remains well 
to our west. Another round of showers and storms will move into the 
region Tuesday evening as a weak low develops in the South. In the 
upper levels, a shortwave will move through the pattern Tuesday 
evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible mainly in 
the Plateau counties and the southern/central Tennessee Valley. 
Timing around 8pm to midnight is the best chance for some stronger 
storms producing gusty winds. Forecast soundings suggest that 
capping maybe a limiting factor.

Showers and storms are possible through the day Wednesday as the 
weak low moves through the Southeast. With good effective shear and 
decent instability expected on Wednesday, we will have to monitor 
for severe potential. By Wednesday evening or night, rain will clear 
out as the front moves through with a cooler, drier air mass 
expected by Thursday. 

Friday night into Saturday, another low is expected to move through 
the Southeast bringing widespread showers and rain. With low 
instability expected, thunder will be minimal if any. Sunday looks 
dry. Temperatures will be cooler this week with highs in the 60s and 
70s. The coolest day will be Saturday with highs in the lower 60s 
for most of the Tennessee Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Showers and storms will move into the region over the next several
hours with LLWS currently expected in CHA and TYS. During the
storms, strong winds are possible, along with quick reductions to
MVFR or less, mainly from 09Z to 13Z. MVFR conditions will
continue through much of the morning as rain coverage decreases.
Improvements are expected later in the day with continued
southwesterly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             79  64  80  54 /  60  90  90  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  77  61  76  52 /  50  90 100  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       77  61  77  51 /  50  80 100  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              74  58  72  48 /  60  80 100  50 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky 
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast 
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


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