Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 31 2026 - 00Z Wed Sep 02 2026

...Heavy rain is forecast for the Four Corners states through Tuesday
morning, with a moderate risk of excessive rainfall across a portion of
Utah on Monday...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to sweep across the
northern Plains through tonight, possibly reaching into portions of the
Northeast on Tuesday...

An upper-level trough moving onshore into California will lead to a more
vigorous interaction with monsoonal moisture, producing a round of fairly
widespread heavy rainfall across the Four Corners states through Monday
night.  WPC continues to highlight a broad slight risk of excessive
rainfall for this general area of the Four Corners through Tuesday
morning, with a moderate risk issued for central to southern Utah on
Monday.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow
canyons/gullies, and burn scars being the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a fairly deep upper trough/low moving through the Pacific
Northwest will sweep a vigorous frontal system across the northern Plains.
A round of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the frontal system is
expected to impact the northern Plains from west to east through tonight.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are also expected across the Great
Lakes ahead of a pair of warm fronts on Monday.  By Tuesday morning, the
thunderstorms should reach the Northeast where some of these thunderstorms
could become severe. Additional rounds of thunderstorms are also expected
to develop across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday near a meandering
front and a wave of low pressure.

As a low-pressure system tracks eastward across southern Canada, a broad
southerly flow will develop across the eastern two-thirds of the country.
This will bring the heat and humidity over the central Plains farther
northeast into the Midwest and toward the Ohio Valley over the next couple
of days.

Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms should gradually become more isolated
as the weak stationary front near the coast dissipates.  The Sunshine
State will continue to see thunderstorms most active in the late-day hours
through the next couple of days.

Last but not least, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of
low pressure off the central Gulf Coast for potential tropical cyclone
development over the next couple of days as it generally moves west to
west-northwest toward the western Gulf Coast region.  This system will
increase the threat of showers and thunderstorms impacting the Louisiana
coast on Monday, followed by gusty winds possibly reaching the upper Texas
coast by Tuesday.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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