992 
FXUS64 KMRX 301833
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
233 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 231 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026
 
- Hot and humid conditions will continue with highs well into the 
90s and heat index reaching or exceeding 100 for most by mid-week. 

- Other than isolated storms in the mountains today or tomorrow,
  rain chances do not return until late in the week into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Currently, a shortwave/low pressure system is moving into the 
northern Great Plains with a near 5,950m ridge centered to our west. 
Surface high pressure remains largely in place across the eastern 
U.S. This will lead to another hot and largely dry day across the 
region. With PWAT values sitting around 1.3 to 1.5 inches, moisture 
is sufficient for isolated showers or storms along the higher 
terrain, but most places will stay dry. By Monday, the upper high 
will strengthen and shift slightly east, leading to a further 
increase in temperatures into the 90s. Isolated rain chances 
continue along the higher terrain, but this will remain limited. By 
Tuesday and Wednesday, the 500mb high will remain near 5,950m and 
centered directly over the region, promoting widespread 90-degree 
temperatures. With similar moisture in place, heat index values will 
reach or exceed 100 degrees across most of the area, potentially 105 
degrees in the southern Valley. The upper high begins to shift 
further south on Thursday, with an increase in moisture leading to a 
return of rain chances. 

Friday and Saturday, a closed low will move into New England, 
leading to further suppression of high pressure and northwesterly 
flow aloft. With sufficient moisture in place, chances for diurnal 
showers and storms will increase above Thursday, also leading to 
some reduction in temperatures as well. With heating and moisture, a 
few stronger storms are possible, but we are certainly in a 
climatologically less favorable time of year. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Light and variable winds with FEW/SCT clouds around 5,000 feet AGL
will continue for the rest of the day and into the evening. Low-
end chances for showers and storms exist in the mountains with no
impact expected at the terminals. Overnight into tomorrow morning,
low-end chances for fog exist at TRI, so the 6SM was maintained.
Otherwise, similar conditions are expected again tomorrow. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  95  73  97 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  93  72  95 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  93  72  95 /   0  10   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  90  68  92 /   0  10   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


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