MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 281246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281246
OKZ000-TXZ000-281445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...northern Texas into southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168...

Valid 281246Z - 281445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168 continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and eventually damaging winds appear likely
along the warm frontal corridor crossing the Red River Valley this morning.

DISCUSSION...A multicell storm complex is currently over
Baylor/Archer Counties, TX, with impressive morning satellite
presentation with overshooting tops and enhanced-v signature. These
storms are riding along the warm front, which extends east/northeast
into southeast OK. South of this boundary, a very moist and unstable
air mass exists, with MLCAPE already over 3500 J/kg at 12Z.

Given effective deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt and 100 kt high-level
flow, this complex is forecast to persist through the morning, and
perhaps strengthen as SBCIN is reduced further.  In that case, more
of a rightward propagation is possible.

Elsewhere, strong elevated instability exists well north of the warm
front. The 12Z OUN sounding shows MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg, along with
ample deep-layer shear.  Should any cells form within the broad warm
advection zone, large hail would be likely.

..Jewell.. 04/28/2026

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33629614 33569656 33669724 33709799 33599869 33529929
            33579949 33689953 33939951 34449892 34779788 34899716
            34909621 34599581 34309578 33839581 33629614

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

$$
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