563 
FXUS64 KMRX 310647
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
247 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026
 
- Hot and humid conditions will continue with highs well into the
  90s and heat indices reaching or exceeding 100 for most by mid-
  week.  

- Other than isolated storms in the mountains the next few days,
  rain chances do not return area-wide until late in the week into
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

For much of the week ahead, longwave troughing will remain well to 
our north. A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to edge 
eastward, eventually centering overhead at about 596 dam. Sounding 
climatology out of BNA suggests about 588 dam this time of year, so 
a bit of an anomalous ridge. Surface high pressure will be centered 
over the Appalachians at the same time. The hottest temperatures of 
the forecast period appear to be Wednesday and Thursday, where the 
ambient temperatures are highest, as well as an increase in 
humidity. It's possible a Heat Advisory could be introduced for a 
few counties later in the week, especially for portions of the mid 
and southern valley. Temperatures compared to climatology, will be 
running around 10 degrees above normal.

A closed low aloft and subsequent shortwave is forecast to suppress 
the ridge, sending it back west around the end of this week. At the 
surface, a low pressure center and cold front extending out from it 
will try to move in from the north. By the end of the first weekend 
of September, the ridge becomes centered near the Lee of the 
Rockies. Moisture from the Gulf also tries to move north the same 
time of the front edging south, which may become the next time the 
forecast area sees chances of widespread precipitation. Only the 
higher terrain will see differential heating induced showers or 
storm the next few afternoons. Temperatures will also trend cooler 
over the weekend and into next week, with much lower heights, 
northwest flow, and increasing precipitation chances. Humidity also 
expected to drop into next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Persistence forecast with VFR conditions and light winds. Some
light fog cannot be ruled out at TRI but HREF probs suggest this
is unlikely to lead to a reduction in flight categories. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             95  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  72  95  72 /  10   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              90  68  92  70 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)