182 
FXUS64 KMRX 282259
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms try to move in this evening 
and tonight. Low potential of strong to severe storms, but the 
threat cannot be completely ruled out.

- Wednesday morning and possibly again in the afternoon/evening will 
see another round of isolated thunderstorms that could bring gusty 
winds and hail.

- Another round of mainly rain showers expected Friday through
  Saturday. Thunder chances are quite low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Morgan, Scott (TN), 
Bledsoe and Sequatchie Counties until 2 AM. A cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms is moving into Middle Tennessee shortly. This
cluster is expected to weaken as it moves into East Tennessee but
there is a chance that the watch may need to be extended eastward
slightly. Timing for the Plateau counties looks to be around 10PM
to midnight. The main threat will be damaging winds if storms can
hold together. Will update with mesoanalysis as storms move 
closer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Discussion:

Currently storms have moved well to our south and well to our east, 
but are still currently ongoing. This long line of storms is likely 
going to influence the atmosphere tonight, so it's worth keeping an 
eye on as it's likely inhibiting the atmosphere from recovering and 
destabilizing. North of this line expect more minor/moderate 
destabilization this afternoon into this evening. This hopefully 
looks to limit the severe thunderstorm chances this evening/tonight. 
Cannot completely say we're in the clear, as we'll have to see how 
strong storms to our west (Currently over Arkansas) maintain 
strength as they move further east. If they have strong forward 
momentum they could bring their own dynamics as they move towards 
the Cumberland Plateau. However at this time its looking 
increasingly likely that the airmass over the eastern Tennessee 
Valley remains fairly stable and really squashes severe convection.

Wednesday is shaping up to be a potentially interesting day with 
more synoptic and jet dynamics likely in play in our area. Mid level 
jet starts to nose into the region tomorrow and along with it we'll 
see an increase in lapse rates, especially in the afternoon as they 
climb to 6.5-7.0C/km. The jets also bring with them some very dry 
mid level air which dramatically increases the DCAPE as we approach 
the afternoon hours. So there are 2 main timeframe for storms on 
Wednesday. 

1. Wednesday morning around sunrise in northeast TN and southwest VA 
as the remnants of overnight storms get affected by better jet and 
dynamic forcing they could reinvigorate causing a brief window of 
strong storms 

2. Later in the day as we destabilize and have stronger forcing 
overhead we could see isolated storms develop. These afternoon 
storms could bring strong downburst winds and quarter size hail. 
This afternoon window is pretty brief, with the highest chances to 
see strong storms around 18-22z (4-8pm EDT). 

A few lingering showers are possible later in the evening, but the 
majority of people will remain rain-free most of the night. Friday 
night into Saturday, another low is expected to move through the s 
southeast bringing widespread showers and rain. With low instability 
expected, thunder will be minimal if any. Sunday looks dry. 
Temperatures will be cooler this week with highs in the 60s and 70s. 
The coolest day will be Saturday with highs in the lower 60s for 
most of the Tennessee Valley.

Yet another front will make a dive at the region early next week 
which could be the trigger for another round of showers and 
thunderstorms.

With several systems and rain events expected temperatures will stay 
fairly  moderate for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Breezy south to southwest winds will persist over the next few 
hours. Recent satellite trends suggest a higher probability that CHA 
remains socked into MVFR conditions. There is potential the cloud 
deck lifts enough for a few hours of low VFR conditions this 
evening, but confidence is low. MVFR cigs are expected to return to 
the region alongside increasing chances for rain tonight. Scattered 
showers and potentially a few isolated thunderstorms will develop 
again tomorrow afternoon, especially for TYS/TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             64  80  55  72 /  90  60  20   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  76  52  68 /  90  80  20   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  77  50  69 /  90  80  20   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              58  72  48  65 /  80  90  40  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...McD


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