439 
FXUS64 KMRX 070521
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
121 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 120 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- The severe storm threat has ended. 

- Light to moderate rain will continue overnight. Flooding 
  potential if any is low.

- Rain showers will decrease in the morning hours and end 
  completely by mid afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

The cold front is currently stalled near the Cumberland Plateau 
at the western edge of our forecast area. Rain showers are still 
developing along, ahead of and behind this boundary. Thunderstorms
and heavy rain have moved out of the region. The highest rainfall
amounts have been south of I-40 with many locations receiving one
to two inches. North of I-40, rain amounts have been much lower 
with most locations receiving less than half an inch. 

Light to moderate rain showers will continue overnight. The highest 
rain amounts are expected over the Southern Tennessee Valley and 
Southwest North Carolina with half an inch to one inch additional 
rainfall expected through the morning hours. The severe storm threat 
has ended. Instability has eroded from multiple rounds of rain. The 
flooding threat peaked in the evening hours and has been declining. 
I can't completely rule out some flooding issues in the southernmost 
counties as repeated showers and storms will continue until the 
front moves through but that area seems to be doing well with the 
rain due to the drought conditions and rain rates haven't been too 
high. The cold front will move through the region by morning. 

Showers will linger this morning as the front is still slow to move 
and will likely be just south of the region. Showers will be light 
and spotty with a much drier air mass moving in with dew points in 
the 50s. By Thursday afternoon, a shortwave will move through the 
Tennessee Valley kicking the front out of the region. Most of the 
region will be dry through the afternoon hours. High pressure will 
be centered over the region Thursday night. 

Friday night/Saturday morning another shortwave will move through 
the region but rain chances look low. A Gulf Low will bring rain 
chances to the Southeast Saturday/Sunday but the higher rain chances 
will likely stay south of the Tennessee Valley. Sunday and Sunday 
night will bring a better chance for showers and storms as a system 
with good upper level support moves through the region. Otherwise, 
early next week looks mostly dry. Highs will be mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Some showers around early with mainly MVFR/IFR conditions, then
will see improvement to VFR during the day. Light winds will 
become north and west around 10kts or less during the day, then 
light again late. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  47  74  52 /  20   0   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  44  72  51 /  40   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       69  43  72  50 /  10   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  40  69  46 /  50   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


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