Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Sep 01 2026 - 00Z Thu Sep 03 2026

...Tropical Depression Five is forecast to intensify to tropical storm
strength before making landfall over the upper Texas coast later on
Tuesday...

...A moderate risk of excessive rainfall from northern Arizona to Utah
through this evening...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms from the lower Great Lakes to the
northern Mid-Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday, with a slight risk of flash
flooding on Wednesday...

As the threat of heavy rainfall continues across the Great Basin to the
Four Corners, and late-summer heat spreads from the central U.S toward the
eastern U.S., Tropical Depression Five (TD5) formed over the northern Gulf
from the tail end of a front that moved into the eastern Gulf last Friday.
Tropical Depression Five is forecast to track generally west-northwest
passing south of Louisiana before making landfall over the upper Texas
coast later on Tuesday. This system will increase the chance of squally
showers and thunderstorms to affect southern Louisiana through Tuesday,
followed by tropical-storm-force winds impacting the western Louisiana
coast to the upper Texas coast later on Tuesday and Tuesday night. WPC has
a slight risk of excessive rainfall for a portion of these areas as well.
Please refer to the latest updates on TD5 from the National Hurricane
Center as a small system such as TD5 could be prone to quicker intensity
changes.

Meanwhile, an upper-level trough continues to move further into the
western U.S. and interact with monsoonal moisture to produce fairly
widespread heavy rainfall across the Four Corners states with embedded
thunderstorms.  WPC continues to highlight a broad slight risk of
excessive rainfall for this general area of the Four Corners through
tonight, with a moderate risk issued for northern Arizona to central
through tonight. The associated heavy rain could lead to a rapid rise of
water along small streams and narrow canyons/gullies, with burn scars
being the most vulnerable location. The heavy rain threat appears to
lessen and become much less widespread on Tuesday but a marginal excessive
rainfall threat remains across the Four Corners states.

Meanwhile, a rather deep low-pressure system across southern Canada
continues to push a frontal system eastward across the Great Lakes
triggering more showers and thunderstorms. A pair of warm/stationary
fronts will focus a corridor of more widespread showers and thunderstorms
from the lower Great Lakes to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England over the next couple of days. Strong to severe thunderstorms
appear more likely along this corridor during the late-day hours, with a
slight risk of flash flooding forecast for Wednesday. Meanwhile,
additional rounds of thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the
north-central Plains moving toward the upper Midwest through tonight near
a meandering front and a wave of low pressure.

By Wednesday morning, rain associated with the next Pacific front is
forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, late-summer heat
reaching into the lower 100s will persist across the central Plains. The
heat is forecast to spread eastward into the eastern U.S. over the next
couple of days with highs reaching well up into the 90s for the interior
Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday afternoon. Heat advisories are currently in
effect for a large portion of the east-central U.S.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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