356 
FXUS64 KMRX 311901
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 301 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026
 
- Hot and humid conditions will continue with highs well into the
  90s and heat indices reaching or exceeding 100 for most by mid-
  week.  

- Other than isolated storms in the mountains the next few days,
  rain chances do not return area-wide until late in the week into
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

No major changes made to the forecast with a persistence type 
forecast looking to most likely work out as the overall weather 
pattern across the United States remains locked in place. This will 
lead to hot afternoons with some diurnally driven convection firing 
off across the Cumberland Plateau and southern Appalachian 
Mountains... Much like they're currently doing this afternoon.

It'll remain a copy/paste forecast with afternoon Heat Index's near 
or just above the triple digit mark for much of the eastern 
Tennessee Valley. The hottest temperatures of the 7-day forecast 
appear to be Wednesday and Thursday, when the ambient temperatures 
are highest, as well as an increase in humidity. It's possible a 
Heat Advisory could be introduced for a few counties later in the 
week, especially for portions of the mid and southern valley. 
Temperatures compared to climatology, will be running around 10 
degrees above normal.

Heading into the weekend we'll finally have a chance at a pattern 
change as a stronger trough will try and suppress the ridge. At the 
surface, a low pressure center and cold front extending out from it 
will try to move in from the north. By the end of the first weekend 
of September, the ridge becomes centered near the Lee of the 
Rockies. Moisture from the Gulf also tries to move north the same 
time of the front edging south, which may become the next time the 
forecast area sees chances of widespread precipitation. Only the 
higher terrain will see differential heating induced showers or 
storm the next few afternoons. Temperatures will also trend cooler 
over the weekend and into next week, with much lower heights, 
northwest flow, and increasing precipitation chances. Humidity 
should also drop with this system as well.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Light and variable winds with some clouds around 5,000 to 10,000
feet AGL will persist. A few showers or isolated thunder remain
possible but likely to stay in the mountains. Overnight into
tomorrow morning, periods of fog are possible again at TRI, so
another TEMPO was included. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  95  73  97 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  95  73  97 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  92  69  94 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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