863 
FXUS64 KMRX 191908
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
208 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 158 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Line of frontal showers, maybe a thunderstorm early tomorrow 
  morning. Cannot rule out strong gusty winds, but severe is 
  highly unlikely.

- Rollercoaster temperatures, with warm through Saturday, cold Sunday
  into early next week, and then likely mild again late next 
  week.

- Cold front early on Sunday likely to induce horseshoe pattern 
  snowfall in northern high terrain, with potential for lower 
  elevation snow flurries. Higher uncertainty in exact amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Finally have some decent clearing underway across much of the area, 
with Chattanooga indeed able to stay on pace for highs today. Tri-
cities have been lagging, but if they can see some sunshine they may 
make a final inning rally. 

Tonight a cold front will sweep the region, not particularly
strong thermal gradient wise. The H85 flow aloft however is 
strong ahead of the front, 45 to 50 knots, hence the wind 
advisory. Think the advisory is another marginal case, with Cove 
Mountain likely peaking into the mid range 40s, most other 
locations around 40 mph. The other risk potential is the tricky 
one of deciding if the surface inversion overnight is strong and 
stable enough to keep any shower downdrafts at bay. If the 
inversion and poor thermodynamics works out, then we'll just have
a line of showers criss-cross the whole region early morning, and
then a nice day thereafter. But there's some potential given the 
high shear/maybe enough CAPE for gusty winds near severe criteria 
to be transported to the surface.

We remain in an active pattern into the weekend and early next week 
when the upper trough digs in and a couple of embedded shortwaves 
come diving into the Eastern US. A very sharp cold front will swing 
through on Sunday, sending temperatures back down into winter. 
There's still pretty decent spread for how long we can maintain 
strong northwest flow on the backside between Sunday and late 
Monday, with a wide range of accumulation potential in higher 
elevations. For now stuck with the larger ensemble means, which
are on the lower end of the distribution.

Heading into next Tuesday and beyond, temperatures are likely to 
moderate once more as the upper trough swings out, higher heights 
build in, and a milder airmass moves in from the west. More rain 
chances on the horizon by next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Messy period still ongoing with light showers north of TYS.
Showers should steadily wind down over next couple of hours.
Another bout of rain associated with cold front likely early
morning. Ahead of the rain a period of LLWS is possible,
especially at KTRI where a surface inversion is most likely.
Cannot rule out fog at KTRI overnight. Once front clears the area
between 11z and 15z, rapid improvement to VFR is expected area
wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             75  60  71  49 /  30  80  20  70 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  59  68  46 /  70  90  30  30 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  57  68  45 /  60  90  20  30 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  55  65  42 /  80  80  40  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for 
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier 
     Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast 
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


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