Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Sep 01 2026 - 12Z Thu Sep 03 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Western Gulf Coast and the Northeast on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Norther/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and
Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday...

Monsoonal moisture will weaken slightly on Tuesday, producing showers and
thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Great
Basin/Southwest/Central/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great
Basin/Southwest/Central/Southern Rockies on Monday.

Tropical Storm EDOUARD is forecast to move northwestward into Southeastern
Texas and weaken to a Tropical Depression by Wednesday morning and
dissipate by Wednesday evening.  EDOUARD will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Central/Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Western Gulf
Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Also on Tuesday, a front extending across the Northeast westward into the
Great Lakes and then into the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains
will slowly move eastward into the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast by
Thursday.  The system will produce heavy rain over parts of the Lower
Great Lakes/Northeast on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts
of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Wednesday.  The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable.

On Wednesday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop from the Lower
Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great
Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday into Thursday morning.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, showers
and thunderstorms will develop along the coast from the Southeast/Florida
to the Central/Western Gulf Coast through Thursday morning.

Next, a front will approach the Northwest Coast on Tuesday, producing rain
that will expand inland to the Northern Intermountain Region by Tuesday
afternoon and continue into early Wednesday. The rain will continue
through Thursday. Lastly, heat will build over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and expand into
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday and Thursday.
In response, Heat Advisories have been posted over the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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