689 
FXUS64 KMRX 071742
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
142 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- Dry and significantly cooler conditions expected tonight. Patchy
  frost will be possible in the north and also at higher
  elevations.

- Friday should be dry, but a couple of systems will bring chances
  of light rain to the region between Saturday and Monday.
  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

A strong jet atop a moist boundary layer trapped in the 
Tennessee valley continued to produce occasional light rain and 
drizzle for areas near or east of the I-81 corridor late this 
morning. The upper jet will remain overhead through this afternoon 
and evening but we shift into the left entrance region by mid/late 
afternoon, losing any lift associated with the jet streak and thus 
our support for continued light rainfall.

For tonight, the cold front continues to push southeast away from 
the region, allowing high pressure and drier air to move in from the 
northwest. Temperatures will drop into the 30s tonight across 
sheltered areas north of the I-40 corridor and also places with 
notable elevation. Suspect we have a chance of seeing some frost in 
places, although confidence in how widespread that will be is pretty 
low. Blended the NBM 10th percentile and HREF for temperatures and 
dewpoints tonight, which yields some patchy frost over portions of 
the northern Cumberland plateau, and some scattered areas from the 
far northern TN valley into southwest Virginia, as well as elevated 
places in our TN mountains. Will forego headlines at the moment due 
to uncertainties in coverage, and just highlight here and also in 
the HWO.

Looking ahead, zonal flow is in place across the region on Friday, 
with a shortwave moving through the Ohio and Tennessee valley areas 
early Saturday as the eastern CONUS transitions to synoptic scale 
troughing. There's not much phasing of southern and northern stream 
energy with this Saturday impulse, with the forecast area largely 
shown to be beneath confluent upper level flow and a dry region 
between two areas of precip associated with the northern/southern 
stream jets for Saturday. We have some slight chance PoPs over a 
large chunk of the CWA on Saturday morning and that looks perfectly 
reasonable to me at this time.

Additional upper level energy and another cold front will sweep 
through the region Sunday and Sunday night, for more chances of 
widespread rainfall. There doesn't appear to be any severe storms or 
flooding concerns with this system, just some much needed widespread 
rainfall.

First half of next week looks largely dry, but upper troughing 
continues over the eastern CONUS next week so additional systems and 
rainfall are at least possible the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Areas of -RADZ continue across East Tennessee but should move away
from TAF sites by 19z or 20z at the latest. Afterwards, expect
VFR conditions to last through late tonight before fog development
becomes a possibility. Currently have some VSBY restrictions
mentioned at KTYS and KTRI where fog appears most likely. There 
was quite a bit of rain at KCHA too, and temperatures will be cool
tonight, but think there will be enough high clouds to prohibit
fog there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             47  74  52  79 /   0   0  10  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  43  72  51  77 /   0   0  10  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       42  72  50  77 /   0   0  10  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              39  69  46  73 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


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