061 
FXUS64 KMRX 081051 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
651 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

- Cold temperatures expected this morning. Areas to the north and
  sheltered valleys in higher terrain may see patchy frost. See
  Special Weather Statement for details. 

- Generally low rain chances through the forecast period, with the best
  chance early next week with a frontal system.

- Temperatures will range from just below normal to near normal through
  the period. Possible return of cold morning lows Tuesday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

The forecast period through next week can be characterized by 
longwave troughing dominating the east and ridging locked to the 
west. Our area will almost be smack dab in the middle of northern 
and southern stream disturbances, and that is evident looking at the 
sum of days 1 through 7 WPC QPF. The greatest moisture will remain 
to our south over the Gulf states and southeast. For the week, our 
area will generally exhibit zonal to northwesterly flow. It'll be 
dry today with a possible brush of isolated showers Saturday. Area 
wide rain tries to set up late Sunday into Monday, with the arrival 
of a frontal system. Thereafter, the forecast dries out with a 
potential northern system mid week or so.

Due to drier conditions and high pressure overhead this morning, 
clear skies, calm winds, and temperatures near or below 40 degrees, 
patchy frost development is possible across portions of the northeast 
and southwest Virginia. A Special Weather Statement through 9 am ET 
covers the counties we think may have the best shot. Much of the 
rest of the forecast area may be too warm, or not get the drier air 
in time. And clouds are actually streaming in across southern 
portions of the CWA, which would further inhibit stout decoupling. 
Under peak mixing later today, minimum RHs could sink into the 30s 
and 40s percent. Shouldn't be any increased fire weather threat due 
to recent rain and winds will be light this afternoon.

Once we warm later today, temperatures will be on an incline through 
Sunday. The aforementioned frontal system will send temperatures 
downward again Monday and especially early Tuesday, where lows that 
morning could return to the 30s and 40s again. Then a gradual 
recovery of temperatures until the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Fog at TRI will lift in the next couple hours, with VFR conditions
and light winds expected for the rest of the period at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             75  53  80  57 /   0  10  10  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  51  77  55 /   0   0  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  50  78  53 /   0   0  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  46  74  50 /   0   0  20   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


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