ACUS03 KWNS 080729
SWODY3
SPC AC 080728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west Texas
east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat is
expected to develop over parts of the eastern Gulf Coast.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward
through the central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances
southward across the southern Plains. South of the front, surface
dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will contribute to moderate
instability by afternoon from a dryline in west Texas
east-northeastward across much of north-central and northeast Texas.
As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases
near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the northern edge of the moist airmass during the afternoon
and evening.

Forecast soundings across parts of west and north-central Texas late
Sunday afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3500
J/kg range with 0-6 shear around 35 knots. This, combined with
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, should be favorable for a
large-hail threat. In addition, steep 0-3 km lapse rates should
support an isolated wind-damage threat, especially if a cold pool
can organize. The cold front position is expected to be a bit
further south than is currently forecast. This projected position is
in relatively good agreement with the most reliable guidance, which
adds confidence in a potential severe threat area in west,
north-central and northeast Texas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast...

Westerly mid-level flow is forecast on Sunday across the Gulf Coast
region. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the
central Gulf Coast eastward to Florida. Some solutions move a subtle
shortwave trough eastward across the Southeast on Sunday. This would
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the
afternoon near the coast from southeast Louisiana eastward to
southern Georgia and northern Florida. Instability and deep-layer
shear is expected to be strong enough for a marginal severe threat
during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/08/2026

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