Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 02 2026 - 00Z Fri Sep 04 2026

...Tropical Storm Edouard has made landfall near the Louisiana-Texas
coastal border, bringing tropical storm conditions near the coast and
flash flooding threat further inland across eastern Texas...

...Excessive rainfall and severe weather threats slowly progress southward
across the lower Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic during the next
couple of days...

...Cool and unsettled weather moving into the Pacific Northwest as next
surge of monsoonal moisture reaches Arizona and New Mexico on Thursday...

...Heat advisories in effect for a large portion of the east-central U.S.,
Deep South, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic; excessive heat warning
across the mid-Mississippi Valley...

September begins with late-summer heat continuing to expand from the
central U.S toward the eastern U.S. as Tropical Storm Edouard makes
landfall near the Louisiana-Texas coastal border Tuesday afternoon.
Edouard is forecast to move northwestward into eastern Texas and weaken
quickly to a post-tropical low pressure area by Wednesday morning.
Tropical storm conditions near the coast where Edouard makes landfall will
quickly transition to a heavy rainfall threat along Edouard's path. A
narrow corridor of heavy rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches can be expected
with maximum totals up to 9 inches for parts of the upper Texas Coast
inland through east-central Texas, and potential for 2 to 4 inches in far
southwest Louisiana. Flash flooding is likely along this corridor,
especially in low-lying and urban areas. River flooding may also be
possible.

Meanwhile, a low-pressure system across southern Canada continues to push
a frontal system eastward through the Great Lakes. A stationary front
extending southeast from the low center has set up a corridor across the
lower Great Lakes to the northern Mid-Atlantic where repeated rounds of
showers and embedded thunderstorms will pose heavy rain and severe weather
threats through the next couple of days. These threats will progress very
gradually southward into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. Across the
north-central Plains, additional rounds of thunderstorms are also expected
to develop near a meandering front and a wave of low pressure.  These
showers and storms are expected to move from west to east toward the upper
Midwest through the next couple of days, with a severe thunderstorm threat
across northern-central Montana on Wednesday.

A rather deep upper-level trough/low for late summer is forecast to push
inland into the Pacific Northwest, bringing increasingly widespread
unsettled weather deeper into the Intermountain West over the next couple
of days. In fact, below freezing temperatures are possible across the
higher elevations of southern Oregon by Thursday morning. A couple inches
of rain with locally higher amounts can be expected along the coastal
ranges with lower amounts for the lower elevations. Meanwhile, the influx
of the upper trough will begin to pull the next surge of monsoonal
moisture from Mexico further into Arizona and New Mexico by Thursday. WPC
has posted a slight risk of excessive rainfall for southern Arizona on
Thursday.

In contrast to the cool weather forecast for the Pacific Northwest,
late-summer heat reaching into the lower 100s will persist across the
central Plains. The heat is forecast to spread farther eastward into the
eastern U.S. over the next couple of days with highs reaching well up into
the 90s to around 100 for the interior Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday
afternoon. Heat advisories are currently in effect for a large portion of
the east-central U.S. to the Deep South with new heat advisories posted
for portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Excessive heat warnings are in effect
for the mid-Mississippi Valley where heat indices could reach 110 during
the day.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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